CONFIDENTIAL
CRISIS SCENARIO
1. Slovakia/Hungary:
Relations deteriorate over minorities or Gabcikovo dam, and are broken off. Reprisals against minorities in both countries.
2. Bulgaria/Romania: Tightening of sanctions on Serbia exacerbates recession. Reformists
discredited. Shift to
more authoritarian
government.
3. North Africa:
Islamic fundamentalists take over in Algeria, with spill-over to Morocco and Tunisia
(and Egypt: see below).
4.
Egypt: spreading instability arising
from fundamentalist violence. Resort to unacceptable repression; Mubarak replaced.
WATCHLIST
BRITISH INTERESTS
WARNING SIGNS
Indirect. Blow to credibility of EC/CSCE/COE, and European stability more generally.
Further regional instability. Entrenchment of market democracies in Central Europe suffers blow.
Limited but not negligeable. Instability on southern flank would pose problems for EC as a whole.
Potential
Major strategic interests. catalyst for violence throughout the region: likely death blow to Arab/Israel peace process.
Disagreements over minorities: failure to agree temporary water management regime.
Economic deterioration: labour unrest.
Increase in communal violence; penetration of security apparatus.
Increase in communal violence; increasing repression; loss of popular confidence in regime.
ACTION IN HAND OR BEING CONSIDERED
Support agreed CoE/CSCE monitoring action on minorities. Exert pressure on both sides over Gabcikovo.
Ensure IFIs take account of sanctions in reviewing Bulgarian/Romanian economies.
Little we can do to prevent internal change; but monitoring closely and keeping in touch with the French.
Continuing high level dialogue with Egyptian government; co-ordinate monitoring with
US.
CONFIDENTIAL
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