CONFIDENTIAL
7. Yugoslavia: Serbia/
Montenegro. Internal uprising.
8.
Yugoslavia: Kosovo/
Sandjak Vojvodina. Increasing oppression of non-Serbs by Government or free-lance nationalists leads to fighting. Refugee problems, serious risk of spillover into wider Balkan conflict, destabilisation of
Macedonia/Albania.
9.
Macedonia.
Yugoslavia: Economic/political collapse. Destabilisation by refugee influx (eg from Kosovo). Ethnic riots/outside
interference.
10. Iraq: Saddam escalates battle of wills, further tests coalition's resolve on weapons inspections, pulls rug from under Operation Provide Comfort, attacks Kurds.
Possibility (at present slight) of violent reaction to Milosevic's totalitarian intentions.
Indirect. US Administration have made it clear that Serb-provoked fighting in Kosovo would be tripwire for direct military action against Serbs; this could threaten UN consensus. Spread of conflict beyond old Yugoslavia -especially any Greek
would pose problems
involvement
Ag
for NATO and EC.
No direct interests. Risk of spread of conflict.
Important both for the UN's credibility and for long term stability in the Middle East that Saddam should not win.
CONFIDENTIAL
3
Little we can (or should?) do.
Pressure on Serbs.
Resolution of Greek/Macedonian disputes.
Continuous activity in the UN, Washington and Paris.
Keeping
Turkey fully briefed (because of Operation Provide Comfort).
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.