CRISIS SCENARIO
1. Russia: Yeltsin poised between autocracy and overthrow; declares state of emergency; breakdown of authority and civil chaos
2.
Russia: conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The problems of the Russian minority, the Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet and
(especially) nuclear weapons make it a possibility for the future.
CONFIDENTIAL
BRITISH INTERESTS
(1) This would make the cooperative security relationship
(CFE, START etc) impossible to operate.
(2) Disruption of energy markets in Eastern Europe (oil and gas) and and Western Europe (gas).
(3) Likely proliferation of nuclear scientists, nuclear
materials and conventional weapons (eg organised crime working with disaffected military).
(4) Civil nuclear catastrophes might occur without any authorities capable of dealing with the
consequences.
(5) Refugees into W. Europe
A conflict would bring to an end the prospects of reform in both Russia and Ukraine; it could raise the spectre of nuclear conflict; it could result in westward migration and large costs for all, including the UK. Again it would create great anxieties in Eastern Europe.
ACTION IN HANDI FOR CONSIDERATION
G7 action programme on
civil nuclear catastrophe being implemented by G24.
We have urged both sides to settle their differences. Three-year interim agreement set up between Russia and Ukraine on BSF. Arbitration mechanisms through the CSCE or the ICJ could be useful.
CONFIDENTIAL
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