CONFIDENTIAL
FUTURE CRISES
1.
The purpose of this paper is to avoid unpleasant surprises. It is updated every three months. It is divided into two parts: scenarios for crises which might happen in the immediate future and which would have a major, direct effect on British interests, and a "watchlist" for crises which appear less imminent and/or would have a lesser effect on our interests.
2. Since the last paper, in March, some scenarios have receded and others become more threatening. The main changes are as follows:
the Bosnian crisis has of course deepened. But the risks of a wider spill-over into the Balkans outside Yugoslavia through Macedonia have receded with progress in solving Macedonia's problems with Greece. We now believe the Albanian question to pose the greatest threat of a spill-over; this, however, is the subject of a separate paper which will be submitted to Ministers in due course.
* in the FSU, the referendum and the first signs that economic stabilisation may be starting have reduced the threat of a far-reaching Russian internal crisis, at least for the moment; but tensions with the Baltic States and Ukraine (still in economic free-fall and political paralysis, with the dispute over nuclear weapons unresolved), and the continuing fighting in the Caucasus, have increased the threat that Russia could be drawn into crises in her "near abroad".
the two Central European scenarios (a Slovak/Hungarian crisis and politico/economic crisis in Bulgaria or Romania) are now thought not to warrant a place on the "urgent" list but have been relegated to the "watchlist".
The situation in Cambodia has become less acute, following the successful elections.
But, notwithstanding the suspension of North Korea's withdrawal from the NPT, the danger-level there remains high.
* In the Middle and Near East, Egypt has been given a separate slot of its own because of the level of Islamist violence. Iraq remains top of the list; while the crisis scenario has scarcely changed since March, Saddam's willingness to test the coalition is undiminished, apparently undented by the US attack on Baghdad.
CONFIDENTIAL
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