TNAG-2790-FCO40-4029-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1993 — Page 18

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RECEN

CC DEC 1993

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on Taken

Assistants in:

AD (E)

AD (S) CED

Eastern Department

EAU

FED

HKD

LAD

MED

NENAD

SAD

SAAD

SED

SEAD

WED

WIAD

92

Prom: W M L Dickinson

Policy Planning Staff

FORDate: 22 November 1993

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POLICY ADVISORY BOARD: FUTURE CRISES

1.

Any views on fine turning our

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Consent

I should be grateful for updates to our periodical list of future crises, by c.o.p. Wednesday 1 December. Scenarios for inclusion should have some degree of plausibility, though not necessarily of probability, within an eighteen month-two year time-frame.

2. The failed August coup in Moscow has, I think, disposed of scenario 1 on the "imminent" list (although Eastern Department may want to put in some variant on the "watchlist"). From the watchlist I propose to omit scenarios 1 (increasingly implausible), and 2, 6, 7, and 12 (nuisances rather than crises except to the Departments which would have to run them) unless Departments can develop them into something more blood-curdling.

3.

Departments may want to suggest additions. In particular NENAD may wish to develop a worst-case scenario for the West Bank. And perhaps WED could imagine circumstances in which the break-up of Italy was conceivable?

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29/11

Only if the Halians ever manage to elect

strong / Majority government. The might them reach critical mass

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W M L Dickinson

Policy Planning Staff