TNAG-2790-FCO40-4029-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1993 — Page 171

CRISIS SCENARIO

CONFIDENTIAL

BRITISH INTERESTS

ACTION IN HAND/ FOR CONSIDERATION

1. Russia: Yeltsin poised between autocracy and overthrow; declares state of emergency; breakdown of authority and civil chaos

2. Russia: conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The problems of the

Russian minority, the Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet etc make it a possibility fo the future.

(1) This would make the cooperative security relationship

(CFE, START etc) impossible to operate.

(2) Disruption of energy markets in Eastern Europe (oil and gas) and and Western Europe (gas).

(3) Likely proliferation of nuclear scientists, nuclear

materials and conventional weapons

(eg organised crime working with disaffected military).

(4) Civil nuclear catastrophes might occur without any authorities capable of dealing with the

consequences.

(5) Refugees into W. Europe

UK interests only indirect. A conflict would bring to an end the prospects of reform in both Russia and Ukraine; it could raise the spectre of nuclear conflict; it could result in westward migration and large costs for all, including the UK. Again it would create great anxieties in Eastern Europe.

G7 action programme on

civil nuclear catastrophe being implemented by G24.

We have urged both sides to settle their differences. Three-year interim agreement set up between Russia and Ukraine on BSF. Arbitration mechanisms through the CSCE or the ICJ could be useful.

CONFIDENTIAL

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