TNAG-2790-FCO40-4029-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1993 — Page 169

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RECEIVED IN FECISTRY

13 JUL 1993

60

DESK C

INDEX

Assistants in:

REGISTRY tion Taken

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From: W M L Dickinson

Policy Planning Staff

(caped to new Date: 30 June 1993

Fran M Maint

Ihr Bauten

AD (E)

из

AD (S)

CED

Good.

To note t

EAU

Eastern Department

FED

HKD

M. Manis

LAD

MED

NENAD

I'm inclined to heave it at

SAD

SAAD

SED

SEAD

WIAD

and Scurand.

Yours is certainl Possible, to less Serial it a way Hem delidente Chinese destabilisative.

POLICY ADVISORY BOARD: FUTURE CRISES

in

an

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Mickichatts,

Our slot

C Jah

No10

He watchlist of secondary

crises looks ok, but might be updated will.

on

additimal

summario in whing economic crisis in & Chia leading to massive increase illegal immigration into HK wirl

Where to consegnent molems.

Quck? you

мор

1. Every three or four months we put to the PAB a warning list of potential (or likely) international crises. I stress "international": internal crises in which outsiders are not likely to get involved are outside the scope of the paper. I attach a copy of the February version for ease of reference. I should be grateful for updates - which I suspect in most cases will require very little redrafting by c.o.p Friday 9 July.

M

-

2. An update of the present format is however likely to provide a distinct sense of deja vu. To some extent this is inevitable; one purpose of the paper is to ensure that if a crisis suddenly ends up top of Ministers' agenda, they will have had warning, as far in advance as possible, that it might occur; so the paper must - within limits be reasonably comprehensive. But an omnium gatherum is unlikely to be read attentively in each of its editions for minor (or even substantial) changes. We therefore think that there would be merit in a section at the beginning dealing at more length with two or three scenarios where there has been some substantial change since the last paper. Bosnia can probably be omitted; DUSS and Ministers do not need to be reminded. Albania is the subject of a separate paper before the PAB. The candidates which seem to me to most merit such extended treatment are Azerbaijan/Armenia; Estonia/Russia; perhaps Belize/Guatemala. But I should be grateful for any other suggestions.

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W M L Dickinson Policy Planning Staff