15-JUN-1993 14:16
DEL (UK)
33 1 45249837
P.17
OECD FUTURE STUDIES INFORMATION BASE
3402
A STUDY ON CHINA'S EXPORT STRATEGY IN 1990s
(orig. in Chinese)
By Shyu, Shyan-Chyuan, China Foreign Economic Trade Press, Beijing, CN, 348 P. (1992)
The growth in China's exports since 1979 is reviewed and its export strategy in the 1990's is discussed. According to the government's economic plan, China's exports in 2000 will be quadruple those of 1980, at 1980 constant price levels. In accordance with the requirements of this goal, by 2000, exports (1990 constant price level) will reach 105 billion US dollars, an average increase of 7.4% p.a. over ten years. The export strategy in the 1990s should be based on improving the mix of export commodities and improving their quality, and promoting the shift from the export of primary products to the export of intensively processed products. Exports of mechanical-electric equipment, textiles, light industrial products, chemical products, and high-tech commodities are expected to expand particularly rapidly during this period. By 2000, the share of primary products in total exports is projected to be 25% while that of finished industrial products will by 75%. In addition, the strategy of diversifying China's export markets will be emphasized. In 2000, geographical shares of mainland China's export markets are estimated as follows: 35% with Hong Kong; 19.4% with Japan; 12% with the USA; 8.8% with the EC; and 5.1% with ASEAN. The Middle East, Latin America, and Africa will maintain relatively stable shares in China's exports. However, the geographical distribution of exports will still be remarkably concentrated, and China will face the problem of overdependence on a limited number of trade partners. The strategy of diversifying export markets will thus be difficult to implement.
GD: Country Studies; Economic Development
SD: Economic Growth; Development Strategy; Exports; Primary Sector; Manufacturing; International
Trade
GE: China; Developed Countries; Developing Countries
LO: Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, Library, Taipei, TW
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OECD INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME
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