15-JUN-1993 14:16
DEL (UK)
33 1 45249837
P.16
OECD FUTURE STUDIES INFORMATION BASE
3349
CHINA'S ECONOMIC FUTURE
By Ono, Shuichi, in: Sino-Japanese Economic Relationships: Trade, Direct Investment, and Future Strategy, The World Bank, Washington, DC, US, Chapter 3, PP. 45-50 (1992)
China's economic future, particularly in relation to Japan, is discussed. Japanese institutes project 7.6% to 8.3% p.a, average growth of Chinese GNP over 1990-2000. With 6% growth rates, China's GNP would double to $750 billion by 2000. Assuming 4% p.a. average growth for Japan, Chinese GNP would still be less than a sixth of Japan's in 2000 (it was less than a seventh in 1989) but its relative political and economic importance in the Asian economy will be greater than in 1992, Japan will be increasingly vulnerable to disruptive changes in Chinese markets for basic materials, so it is in Japan's interest to secure steady growth in China. Liaoning Province is the most promising area for Japanese investment because of good transport links and cheaper labour, water, electricity, and land than Shanghai. Japanese companies have plans for a 100-factory industrial site. Shanghai is perceived as more Western-oriented, but strong government support for the Pudong development and the well- established industrial base could attract Japanese textile and machinery firms. Shadong is also close to Japan, but its links with Korea are likely to be strengthened, and as the rapprochement between the two countries deepens, this whole region surrounding the Yellow Sea is expected to exemplify the economic interdependence of China, Korea, and Japan. Chinese coastal regions will strengthen their ties with particular partners, e.g. Fujian with Taiwan, but their interdependence will grow along with economic integration of Southeast Asia as a whole. By 2000, China will have more rivals in addition to Southeast Asian nations, e.g. Vietnam.
GD: Country Studies; Economic Development
SD: Development Strategy; Foreign Direct Investment; Regional Development GE: China; Japan; Korea R; Southeast Asia
LO: OECD, Development Centre, Paris, FR
(Ref. no.: 9H-HF1007-ONO)
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OECD INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME
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