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South-East Asia; China itself is showing by its arms acquisitions from Russia and more forward position in the South China Sea that it sees itself asserting a role as one of the leading regional powers in the not too distant future; and South Korea may well be considering new options opened up by the normalisation of relations with China and Russia. We were interested in the view of the observers quoted in your para 4 that China and others might tread more carefully because Clinton is an unknown quantity. An alternative scenario is that given their new found assertiveness, that they will intensify the brinksmanship in order to test him out. (I have just seen your TL of 15 January to Warwick Morris which very usefully covers some of the main China/US points).
4. There are a number of specific scenarios on which it would be useful to keep an eye on the Clinton administration's position as it develops:
how might they react in the event of China becoming involved in increased regional tensions over the Spratly and/or Paracel Islands, or though covered in your TL to further worrying arms sales to potentially unstable countries in the Islamic world (Syria, Iran, Pakistan)?
how would they deal with the implications of Korean reunification, particularly the substantial financial assistance likely to be required?
what role are they likely to want to play in any machinery which evolves for debating regional security issues (you touch on this in your para 18)? It seems to us that involvement on a regional basis will be an important means of flagging their continued commitment to the area at a time when bilateral relations with some individual countries might be less than smooth. In this context, and bearing in mind our own interests in the form of the Fire Power Defence Agreement, we shall continue to follow closely US redeployment of forces and development of facilities elsewhere in the region following the closure of their Philippines bases.
Cc:
Mr Hewitt, SEAD
Mr Ricketts, HKD
bmclint111
Youn
ever
Mr Pellew, NAD
Mr Wye, RAD
Mr Wilkinson, Planners Mr Donnelly, NPDD
H Ll Davies
7
Chanceries: Tokyo,
Peking, Hanoi,
Phnom Penh, UKMIS New York,
Rangoon, Hong Kong, Seoul, ATTC Taipei.
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