TNAG-2750-FCO40-3965-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-Hong-Kong-interests-1993 — Page 294

baclint111

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Foreign & Commonwealth

Office

15

20 January 1993

MAS call

REC.

TRY

S D Pattison Esq

British Embassy Washington

10 FEB 1993

STAY

IN

Jear Stephen.

CLINTON'S ASIAN POLICY

1.

London SW1A 2AH

M 21/1

Is Barnes; Joke 23241

While...

Mr

च्या

Mr Bunks aboli

Miss leaders

yok 2%,

I take the opportunity of Inauguration Day to thank yo belatedly for your letter of 7 December with your useful rundown of the prospects for US Asian policy under the Clinton administration. We very much value reporting from Washington on these issues, since the US looms large in virtually any discussion of Asian-Pacific security and economic affairs. further insights you are able to provide once the Clinton team is in place would be welcome. Gavin Hewitt has already come back to you on some of the points relating to South-East Asia (his letter of 29 December). This letter deals with the countries and issues in FED's area.

Any

2. Like you, we would not anticipate any major shift in the direction of US policy under Clinton. However, we perceive a risk that foreign trade policy in particular might be run by default in the face of his declared concentration on the domestic economy. In the absence of any clearly defined strategy, growing public anger at widening trade gaps with Japan and others could well trigger knee-jerk protectionist measures, which in turn might be prejudicial to EC and UK interests. On the other hand, Clinton's aim of revitalising the US economy and restoring its competitiveness could ultimately be the key to the resolution of trade disputes. The danger lies in the short term, before either domestic economic policies or any new trade policy initiatives begin to bear fruit. Clinton's stance on the outstanding Uruguay Round negotiations, particularly on Japanese and Korean rice imports, will be a good early indication of his will and ability to counter protectionist pressure. It will also be interesting to see how he plans to 'sell' NAFTA to a sceptical Asian audience.

3. In the political field Clinton will have to evolve ways of dealing with an increasingly confident and independent foreign policy stance by a number of countries in the region. Japan has already been carving out a more independent line in its dealings with Vietnam, Burma and China and Prime Minister Miyazawa has been expounding his Asia 'doctrine' during his recent visit to

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