TNAG-2750-FCO40-3965-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-Hong-Kong-interests-1993 — Page 200

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SADDAM HUSSEIN'S CHARM OFFENSIVE. THEY NOTE THAT HIS AIR FORCE HAS BEEN FLYING A LOT OF SORTIES BETWEEN THE 32ND AND 36TH PARALLELS AND THEY ARE EXPECTING A FURTHER CHALLENGE FROM SADDAM. CLINTON IS AS COMMITTED AS BUSH TO DOING WHAT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT THE KURDS AND THE SHIA IN THE SOUTH. HE WILL REACT STRONGLY TO ANY FURTHER ATTEMPT BY THE IRAQIS TO FRUSTRATE U.N. INSPECTIONS. THE AMERICANS BELIEVE SANCTIONS SHOULD ONLY BE RELAXED WHEN SADDAM ACCEPTS UN SCRS 687/688. IF SADDAM PROVOKES FURTHER CONFRONTATION, THE NSC WILL WANT TO DO MORE THAN RESTORE THE STATUS QUO AND TO MAKE HIM PAY E.G. BY EXTENDING THE NO-FLY ZONES OR, AS WE HAVE SUGGESTED, DENYING HIM THE USE OF SOME AIRFIELDS. CLINTON WILL NOT ACT RASHLY, BUT IS DETERMINED TO SHOW THAT HE IS NOT CARTER. HE IS COUNTING ON OUR SUPPORT OVER IRAQ.

ARAB-ISRAEL

8.

THE PARTIES ARE DUE TO MEET IN WASHINGTON ON 20 APRIL. THE AMERICANS STILL THINK THE PALESTINIANS WILL ATTEND. THEY ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCES OF PROGRESS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND SYRIA ON THE GOLAN. BUT THEY DO NOT KNOW WHETHER THE PALESTINIAN LEADERS FROM THE WEST BANK WILL HAVE THE POLITICAL STRENGTH TO CONSIDER ENTERING INTO AN INTERIM AGREEMENT. THEY REALISE THAT THE PALESTINIANS WILL HAVE TO BE ABLE TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE NEGOTIATIONS ON FINAL STATUS WITHIN FIVE YEARS.

NORTHERN IRELAND

9.

YOUR VISIT OFFERS AN OPPORTUNITY TO DRIVE HOME ONCE AGAIN TO U.S. MEDIA AND CONGRESSIONAL OPINION WHERE THE REAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE VIOLATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS LIES, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE WARRINGTON BOMB ATTACK. EVERYONE HERE REALISES THAT THE ADMINISTRATION HAS BACK-TRACKED ON THE IDEA OF A PEACE ENVOY. THE MOST THAT IS CONTEMPLATED IS A FACT-FINDING VISIT AND EVEN THAT HAS BEEN PUT ON THE BACK-BURNER. CLINTON MADE CLEAR IN HIS SAINT PATRICK'S DAY STATEMENT THAT THE PRIORITY MUST TO GET THE TALKS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN IRELAND PARTIES UNDERWAY AGAIN.

10. SIX SENATORS SUPPORTED THE LETTER FROM SENATOR DODD REQUESTING HEARINGS ON NORTHERN IRELAND BUT NONE OF THE SENATE HEAVYWEIGHTS SIGNED THE LETTER. WE SHOULD NOT GET INVOLVED OURSELVES, BUT SHOULD ENSURE THAT ANY HEARINGS THAT TAKE PLACE ARE ATTENDED BY PEOPLE WHO WOULD GIVE THE SUB-COMMITTEE A FIRST HAND ACCOUNT OF IRA ATROCITIES. THE TRUTH IS THAT THERE IS HARDLY ANY SUPPORT IN THE U.S. BODY POLITIC ANY LONGER FOR THE IRA AND INITIATIVES BY DODD AND JOE KENNEDY ARE DESIGNED TO PLACATE SMALL BUT VOCIFEROUS CONSTITUENCY GROUPS. WHEN KENNEDY RAISED THIS WITH ME, I TOLD HIM

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