TNAG-2750-FCO40-3965-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-Hong-Kong-interests-1993 — Page 199

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RUSSIA TOMORROW MORNING. YOUR TALKS WITH CHRISTOPHER WILL BE FOLLOWED UP BY SIR RODRIC BRAITHWAITE AND SIR NIGEL WICKS.

BOSNIA

4. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INFLUENCE U.S. POLICY. BUT THEY SEE SERBIAN AGGRESSION AS THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE. THE SERBIAN OFFENSIVE IN EASTERN BOSNIA HAS FURTHER HARDENED ATTITUDES HERE. THE AMERICANS HAVE BEEN TRYING HARD TO. GET THE BOSNIAN MUSLIMS TO ACCEPT THE VANCE/OWEN PLAN, BUT THEY BELIEVE THE PRESSURE WILL HAVE TO BE RATCHETED UP ON THE SERBS, THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BEING THE NEED TO KEEP THE RUSSIANS ON BOARD.

5.

IF THE SERBS CONTINUE AGGRESSIVE MILITARY ACTIONS, THE AMERICANS WILL WANT TO ENFORCE THE NFZ AND GO FOR THE KIND OF ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS PACKAGE WE HAVE SUGGESTED. IF THE SERBS OVER-RUN SREBRENICA AND INTENSIFY THEIR ATTACKS ON SARAJEVO, SOME VERY DIFFICULT CHOICES WILL ARISE. MOST OF THE ADMINISTRATION REALISE THAT LIFTING THE ARMS EMBARGO ON THE BOSNIAN MUSLIMS WOULD RESULT IN THE TERMINATION OF THE UN RELIEF OPERATIONS AND NECESSITATE THE WITHDRAWAL OF OUR FORCES. THEY WILL DO NOTHING WITHOUT FULL CONSULTATION WITH US. GENERAL POWELL AND THE PENTAGON WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SOBERING EFFECT, BUT THERE ARE INCREASING WORRIES ABOUT A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE SERBS SIMPLY CONTINUE THEIR ATROCITIES.

6.

IF VANCE AND OWEN SUCCEED, WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY, THE AMERICANS HAVE NOT YET TAKEN A DECISION TO COMMIT GROUND FORCES TO A PEACEKEEPING OPERATION. THAT WOULD DEPEND ON WHETHER THEY BELIEVED THAT THE AGREEMENT REACHED HAD A CHANCE OF WORKING. THEY WOULD WANT TO ASSESS THAT WITH US. IF THEY THINK THAT, WITH A LARGE INJECTION OF PEACEKEEPING FORCES, IT COULD SUCCEED, THEY WOULD COMMIT U.S. FORCES IN MORE THAN DIVISIONAL STRENGTH (OVER 20,000 MEN) TO TRY TO MAKE IT WORK. THEY WOULD DO SO ONLY IF THESE FORCES WERE UNDER NATO CONTROL. THEY AGREE THAT THIS WOULD HAVE TO BE A NATO-PLUS OPERATION, BUT THEY WOULD NOT PLACE U.S. FORCES AT DIVISIONAL STRENGTH IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT UNDER UN OPERATIONAL CONTROL. THEY WANT THE FRENCH TO BE INVOLVED AND WOULD LOOK FOR WAYS OF HELPING THEM COSMETICALLY BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SIDE-LINING SACEUR AND SHAPE, WHOSE INVOLVEMENT THEY CONSIDER ESSENTIAL TO THE CHANCES OF SUCCESS.

IRAQ

7. THE ADMINISTRATION STILL ARE STUDYING THE OPTIONS ON IRAQ AND HAVE NOT REACHED ANY FIRM CONCLUSIONS. THEY WERE UNIMPRESSED BY

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