TNAG-2749-FCO40-3964-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1993 — Page 80

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Moody's Sovereign Credit Report Hồng Kong

Hu : Micas ни

CR

June 1993

Ratings

Contacts

Category

Mandy's Baling

Phone

Lan

Tam QAAMA 2 katan Short-term

་ ་

(P.1

David H. Levey/New York

hight vety for Ha das of debt.

[[1} Scvere›gr cailing for fore gn currency ssues, no govainerant or government-quarantaan dati rakst

Foreign Currency DebUGOP

Foreign Currency Debt/Exports :::

50

4C

30

10

10

122

Hong Kong

100

STRANGLAK

10

60

Forecaol

ADC

LAGKILA

23

30 20 Vi

** 95 96 17

BW

راب

VI WA

لال

Forecas!

14 บริ

Yo

- domestic expods » Farexports+exports GI SONICOS.

Domestic Statistics (%)

Hong Kong (Statistics in bold type)

Advanced Developing Countries (ADC) Median (Statistics in light type)

ཅལ

1099

1000

1001

1.1 0.0 .3.4 5.0

3.9 5.0 23 14 1 10.2 22.6 10.0 120 0.8 131.56 142.5 109.9 143.0 145.0

20.0 26.3 $1.4 22.3 31.6

$1982

3.4 .22

Government Current Balance/GÖR Real GOP Growd: Aate Infaton (GDP Daflator) inqustnal Production (1905-100)

International Statistics (%)

2./ +5.2 3.4 4.3 0.8 0.3 3.4 2.6 30 0.2 8.9 11.9 11.0 18 4 8.4 141.3 122.6 142.6 120.0 141.3

26.1 22.6 20.0 240 27.7 25.4

Hong Kong (Statistics in bold type)

Advanced Developing Countries (ACC) Mediah (Statience in light type)

1088

1989

1990

1991

€1992

F1093

Foreign Curr. Deot (US$ bil)

19.5

21.0

Foreign Curr. DebvGDP

33.2 35.7

Foreign Curr. DaovExports

20.4 88.6

Foreign Curr. DebvĒxponis Adjusted li

73.0 88.6

Current Account Balance GOP

Trade Scianco/GDP

5.1 -1.1 -1.5

26.3

27.9 32.7 37.8 33.2 38.4 33.8 36.8 24.4 84.8 26.3 83.4 24.4 93.2 76.2 84.8 89.4 83.4 94.6 93.2 8.0 -1.1 4.9 -1.6 3.0 -0.5 1.1 -0.3 -1.0 0.1 -2.8

J

Had

30.2

34.2 31.5 38.3 31.1 21.8 108.4 10.6 46.1 100.4 97.1 1.7 -0.7 1.5 44.8 *.7

[3] AQUATEC Expons » (domes"z expone - seraice exporta + 10% ofreekpark 1. 10% arm-expone is an aafmate of the valedraddau a mong Kang

Opinion

Moody's sets the long-term and snort-term foraign currency sovereign ceilings for Hong Kong at AS and Pnma-1 respectively. The ratings apolv both to dabt and bank deposits, and they reflect the in- fluence of the fast-approaching date - June 30, 1997 when Heng Kang will become a Special Administrative Region under China's sovereignty. The shon-tem Pamon rasing is backou by Huny Kong'o ample sushion of liquidity Cong

its

and its sound economic managamani. The economy of Hong Kong surged in recent ywars, sundialmú by large vapilai iniluwa, juwin terest rates, and vigorous economic growth in China. Cest inescafes and aimag damene have led to some détenoration in the Wade balance. however, and they have kept the annual inflation rata around 10%. Inflation also reflects structural changes in Hong Kong's economy as it becomes

mara intanzatari with Saum China

During the kanation to Chinese rule, a degree of tension is expected bui a serious financial Crisis is unlikely. In fact, China's continuing economie

liberalization and trade opening are likely to make such a transition less traumatic. A recent clash between the British aovemor and the Chinese govemment may simply accelerate the de facto control by China over the affairs of Hong Kong (and perhaps also slow down current large invest, menta in infrastructure - not altogether a naga. üve aide-olioul, given ünç already rapidi indo vi Brough in wong Kana). The curránt alach addinAA. ally suggests that China will place sovereignty over Hong Kong above other priorities.

a special status, as described in Hong Kong's

"Qeoir Law" (which defines the lerntary's future under China's sovereignty). It will be more difficult for Hong Kong to retain its role as financial center, however. For this, China has to credibly limit its sovereign powers over Hong Kong for years, and it has to forgo ita ingminad tendency for interven. tonism. These self-imposed limits must then with- stand potentially stresski sceñaños in China'ā politics.

Sovereign | Hong Kong

Moody's Sovereign Credit Report

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