SECRET
021250 $5
MDHIAN
THE TALKS SUCCEED, BUT ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE HEADING FOR A BREAKDOWN. THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT, BUT IN MY JUDGEMENT ACHIEVABLE. THE HAN DONGFANG CASE HAS HEIGHTENED COMMUNITY SENSITIVITIES TO RULE OF LAW ISSUES.
4. ONE OPTION WHICH WE MAY WISH TO CONSIDER FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN ROUND 11 AND 12 IS A MESSAGE FROM YOU TO QIAN. THIS MIGHT HELP TO CONVINCE HIM THAT WE ARE NOT BLUFFING. BUT IT WOULD NEED TO BE CAREFULLY JUDGED, IN THE LIGHT OF THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CHINESE MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LEAK IT, AND CLAIM THAT WE HAD DECIDED ON A BREAKDOWN EVEN BEFORE YOUR MEETING WITH QIAN.
5.
WE SHALL NEED IN ANY CASE TO APPROACH ROUND 12 PREPARED EITHER FOR THE MOST DIFFICULT AND STERILE EXCHANGE SO FAR OR FOR A MODEST MOVE BY THE CHINESE. THE FORMER WOULD SEEM TO BE MORE LIKELY. WE SHALL NO DOUBT NEED TO CONFIRM TO THE CHINESE ONCE AGAIN THAT WE HAVE RUN OUT OF ROOM TO MANOEUVRE AND THEY WILL PRESUMABLY REPLY INDIGNANTLY. IT IS JUST POSSIBLE THAT, AFTER THESE EXCHANGES, THEY MAY MAKE A ''CONSTRUCTIVE MOVE, WITH THE AIM OF PUTTING US UNDER PRESSURE TO RESPOND AT YOUR MEETING WITH QIAN A FEW DAYS LATER.
6. IT IS THEREFORE WORTH CONSIDERING NOW WHETHER, IF THE CHINESE MAKE SUCH A MOVE, THERE IS ANY FLEXIBILITY LEFT IN OUR POSITION WHICH YOU MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFER QIAN IN ORDER TO PIN DOWN THE OUTLINE OF A DEAL. THE SHORT ANSWER IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING THAT WE CAN DO TO OUR MODIFIED PROPOSALS WITHOUT UNDERMINING THEIR WHOLE PURPOSE. THE ONLY AREA WHERE THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SCOPE IS IN THE SIZE OF THE FUNCTIONAL CONSTITUENCY FRANCHISE. BUT EVEN THERE WE COULD NOT MOVE FAR WITHOUT RUNNING INTO SERIOUS POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES. WE WOULD NEED TO OBTAIN A GREAT DEAL FROM THE CHINESE IN OTHER AREAS TO MAKE A REDUCTION BELOW THE SYMBOLIC ONE MILLION THRESHOLD SALEABLE HERE (OR, I WOULD JUDGE, IN WESTMINSTER). AND ANY SUCH REDUCTION WOULD NEED TO BE LEFT TO THE VERY FINAL STAGES. THERE MAY ALSO BE ONE OR TWO LESSER CARDS WE MIGHT NEED UP OUR SLEEVES IN THE FINAL STAGES, SUCH AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFTING THE RESTRICTION ON NPC DELEGATES RUNNING FOR ELECTION IN HONG KONG. BUT MOVES OF DETAIL SEEM UNLIKELY ON THEIR OWN TO OFFER A MAKE OR BREAK DIFFERENCE.
7.
AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT, AT ROUND 12 AND IN YOUR MEETING WITH QIAN, WE SHALL STILL BE FACING AN INFLEXIBLE CHINESE POSITION. IN THAT CASE I THINK WE SHALL NEED TO USE YOUR MEETING TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE ON THE CHINESE. IT SHOULD BE MADE PLAIN
TO THEM AT ROUND 12 THAT WE ARE NOT AFRAID TO CONTEMPLATE A
PAGE
SECRET
2
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.