TNAG-2733-FCO40-3939-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1993 — Page 92

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MDHIAN 3665

1993

INDEX

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REGISTRY Action Taken

FM HONG KONG

TO DESKBY 0312307 FGO

TELNO 1424

OF 031109Z SEPTEMBER 93

(58 the 60c

The 60ct Leglo speech)

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INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING, UKREP JLG HONG KONG

MY TELNO 1398 : TALKS ON ELECTORAL ARRANGEMENTS: NEXT STEPS

1.

AS FORESHADOWED IN TUR THE FOLLOWING ARE THOUGHTS ON THE LIKELY WAY AHEAD AFTER ROUNDS 10 AND 11. THEY MIGHT FORM A BASIS FOR DISCUSSION AT MY MEETING ON 10 SEPTEMBER.

2 =

OUR EXPECTATIONS OF ROUNDS 10 AND 11 ARE MODEST. OUR FIRST OBJECTIVE IS TO MAKE CLEAR TO THE CHINESE THAT THE TALKS CANNOT MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS WITHOUT MOVEMENT ON THEIR PART

(PARTICULARLY ON THE THROUGH TRAIN): AND THAT IN ANY CASE WE ARE NOW VERY CLOSE TO OUR BOTTOM LINE. AT BEST, THIS MAY INDUCE THEM TO SHOW SIGNS IN ROUND 11 OF BEING PREPARED TO NEGOTIATE SERIOUSLY, PERHAPS WITH SOME INITIAL OBJECTIVE CRITERIA' ON THE THROUGH TRAIN, PROBABLY UNPALATABLE TO US. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THEIR OWN POSITION WILL REMAIN IMMOBILE AND THAT BOTH ROUNDS WILL BE STERILE. BOTH SIDES WILL THEN HAVE TWO AND A HALF WEEKS TO CONSIDER THEIR APPROACH TO ROUND 12 (26-27 SEPTEMBER) AND YOUR MEETING WITH QIAN IN NEW YORK ON 1 OCTOBER.

3. I AM CLEAR THAT WE SHALL NEED TO USE THOSE TWO AND A HALF WEEKS TO DO SOME CAREFULLY TARGETED BRIEFING. THE CHINESE WILL NO DOUBT INTENSIFY THEIR OWN PROPAGANDA EFFORT: THEY HAVE BEEN SYSTEMATICALLY LEAKING THE CONTENT OF THE TALKS FOR WEEKS ALREADY. WE HAVE NOT BEEN UNDER PRESSURE TO COUNTER THEIR BRIEFINGS BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE PRESS INTEREST OVER THE SUMMER. BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS TIME SHORTENS AND THE TALKS ARE SEEN TO BE GETTING TO A CRUNCH. WE WILL NEED TO GET ACROSS TO THE COMMUNITY NOT ONLY THE FACTUAL BASIS OF OUR APPROACH, BUT THE REASONS FOR IT, I.E. EXACTLY WHAT THESE TALKS ARE ALL ABOUT, WHY THEY ARE IMPORTANT AND WHAT THE POLITICAL SYSTEM IN THE HKSAR MIGHT BE LIKE IF WE ABANDONED OUR PROPOSALS WITH RIGGED ELECTIONS AND SPREADING CORRUPTION, DAMAGING BUSINESS AND THREATENING THE FREEDOMS SUPPOSEDLY GUARANTEED BY THE JOINT DECLARATION AND THE BASIC LAW. IT IS VITAL THAT WE MAINTAIN PUBLIC SUPPORT (AND THAT OF LEGCO AND EXCO) IN THIS CRUCIAL PERIOD, WHEN THE CHINESE WILL BE WORKING HARD TO UNDERMINE IT. WE NEED TO BOLSTER THAT SUPPORT WHETHER OR NOT

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