TNAG-2676-FCO40-3873-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 50

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from September 1993 for six months. The plan is that when that

battalion returns to Hong Kong, the UK battalion should return

to the UK. The two Gurkha battalions would then merge in

September 1994. So the garrison would reduce to two battalions

from September this year, and to one battalion from September

1994.

3.

The crucial judgement from the point of view of our responsibilities for Hong Kong is whether a residual garrison at this projected size would enable us to maintain law and order in all foreseeable circumstances (the garrison has not had a remit to defend Hong Kong against external attack for

several decades) until reinforcements could arrive. The

relevant paragraphs in the paper are 6, 10 and 15. In short,

we assess that:

1

there is a low risk of major unrest in Hong Kong before 1997, triggered off by economic/financial

collapse and/or upheaval in China, or (less likely) fomented by the Chinese authorities;

If such unrest did break out, it could be more difficult to contain with a garrison of a single battalion, which would not be in a position before reinforcement to replace Police Units on

the border.

hum7.6garrison/MIN/NJH

There is therefore a marginal increase in risk

that we could lose control of the situation in

Hong Kong and that the Chinese leadership could decide to intervene militarily.

But the Governor considers that this risk is

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