TNAG-2676-FCO40-3873-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 134

SECRET

a one battalion garrison. The military risk is primarily that there could be a rapid breakdown in law and order which would be beyond the capability of the RHKP to deal with. The chances of that are slight and would not be significantly increased by reduction of the garrison to a symbolic level. But if these

circumstances arose, a weak garrison might make Chinese intervention more likely. The political risk relates mainly to

Chinese perceptions, and possibly also those in Hong Kong. But

we believe these risks can be managed and are outweighed by the

need to avoid a damaging dispute between the Governor and LEGCO

over defence costs at a time when the Hong Kong government faces major political challenges; and the additional flexibility to

meet other military commitments that would result from redeploying forces from Hong Kong. We therefore invite colleagues

to:

agree that the land element of the Hong Kong garrison should be reduced to a single infantry battalion by September 1994, in accordance with the broad timetable set

out in paragraph 7.

b. note that this will lead to substantial savings in the

support area which will need to be quantified in detail,

though the net cost to HMG will almost certainly be

substantial.

Х

c. agree that further work should be carried out on:

(1) the future size of the RAF presence in Hong Kong.

(2) the re-inforcement plans for the garrison.

A public mand

(3) (public)handling both with the Chinese,in Hong Kong and in the UK.

SECRET