SECRET
10.
The Chinese leadership are deeply preoccupied by the
risk of a breakdown in public order in the last years of
British administration. They will be concerned that any
accelerated reduction in the garrison could lessen our ability
to maintain order. In addition, officials directly involved
in Hong Kong issues will be likely to perceive an early
reduction as an attempt to deprive the Chinese garrison of a
part of the military estate which they hope to inherit in Hong
Kong after 1997. A further, presentational disadvantage for
the Chinese is that an accelerated run-down will tend to make
the size of their garrison (reportedly planned at 10,000
troops plus support units) appear excessive.
A
10(a) The Chinese will thus probably see a number of reasons
to object to our revised plans, both in private contacts with ourselves and perhaps the public. We are committed to keeping the Chinese informed, through the Sino-British Joint Liaison
Group, of our planning for the withdrawal of the garrison but
we do not regard ourselves as bound to seek their concurrence.
SECRET
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