TNAG-2675-FCO40-3872-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 94

GOVERMENT HOUSE HONG KONG.

WED 14 APR 93 09:50

SECRET

FM FCO

TO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG

TELNO 246

OF 191344Z MAR 93

· SECRET

DIST

INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING, UKREP JLG HONG KONG

PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR FROM SIR J COLES

YOUR TELNO 342: HONG KONG:

PG.18

· FILE COPY Z

GARRISON WITHDRAWAD

205285

TAB D

THERE ARE

1. THANK YOU FOR THIS ACCOUNT OF YOUR THINKING. CLEARLY A NUMBER OF DIFFICULT ISSUES HERE AND IT WAS HELPFUL TO BE FOREWARNED ABOUT THEM.

2. CAN I FIRST SET OUT THE BUREAUCRATIC POSITION.

HONG KONG DEPARTMENT ARE KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON THE MOD ́S THINKING. WE UNDERSTAND THAT THE DEFENCE SECRETARY PLANS TO WRITE TO YOU SHORTLY, ENCLOSING A SHORT PAPER WHICH WILL BE DESIGNED TO SECURE YOUR AND THE FOREIGN SECRETARY'S AGREEMENT TO A BROAD POLICY FRAMEWORK AGAINST WHICH THE DETAILED 1993 REVIEW OF THE WITHDRAWAL PLAN CAN THEN BE CONDUCTED. YOU MAY WANT TO WAIT FOR THIS BEFORE WRITING FURTHER TO MR RIFKIND. HIS LETTER TO YOU WILL BE COPIED TO THE FOREIGN SECRETARY, AND WE WILL CERTAINLY TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY TO CHIP IN, BEARING IN MIND THE POINTS IN YOUR TELEGRAM.

3.

ON THE ROLE OF THE GARRISON, WE RECOGNISE THAT THERE IS A WIDESPREAD PERCEPTION IN HONG KONG THAT THE GARRISON NOW DOES VERY LITTLE OF PRACTICAL VALUE AND THAT IT (AND ITS COSTS) SHOULD BE SHRINKING. I AM SURE YOU WOULD AGREE THAT WE SHOULD NOT THEREFORE ASSUME THAT THE GARRISON COULD NEVER PLAY A USEFUL ROLE. WE ALL DEVOUTLY HOPE THAT CIRCUMSTANCES WILL NOT ARISE BEFORE 1997 WHERE YOU NEED TO REDEPLOY POLICE FROM THE BORDER TO BUT THERE IS A CASE DEAL WITH A BREAKDOWN OF INTERNAL SECURITY. TO BE MADE AS PART OF SHOWING BRITAIN'S COMMITMENT TO HONG KONG UP TO 1997 FOR KEEPING ENOUGH IN-PLACE BRITISH FORCES IN HONG KONG TO MAKE A WORTHWHILE CONTRIBUTION IF TROUBLE ON THAT SCALE EVER DID BLOW UP. AS COUNTLESS WAR-GAMES OVER THE YEARS HAVE SHOWN, TIMELY DECISIONS TO REINFORCE CAN BE PARTICULARLY TRICKY, GIVEN WORRIES ABOUT INFLAMING AN ALREADY TENSE SITUATION.

4. THERE IS ALSO A CHINESE ANGLE, AS SIR R MCLAREN POINTS OUT IN HIS TELNO 352. THIS IS NOT DECISIVE, BUT IT NEEDS TO BE BORNE IN MIND. WE UNDERTOOK WHEN WE LAST BRIEFED THE CHINESE ON WITHDRAWAL PLANS IN APRIL 1992 TO QUOTE CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CHINESE SIDE INFORMED THROUGHOUT THE PROCESS OF WITHDRAWAL OF THE GARRISON, UNQUOTE.

5.

ON THE WITHDRAWAL TIMETABLE, (YOUR PARA 4), I UNDERSTAND THAT IT IS ACQUIS IN MOD THAT THE SECOND GURKHA BATTALION SHOULD WITHDRAW IN THE AUTUMN OF 1994. BUT, AS YOU SAY, THIS WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SAVINGS UNTIL THE FINANCIAL YEAR 1994/95.

6. THE KEY ISSUE THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE FINDING SHORTER TERM SAVINGS. WE FULLY UNDERSTAND YOUR DIFFICULTY IN SECURING LEGCO

SECRET

DEFENCE AND PUBLIC ORDER: REVIEW OF THE GARRISON WITHDRAWAL PLAN A: SFORS

D: HE CS FS PA(3) JLG(1) PS/GH (4).

NOTE: PERSONAL CONERA