7. rift in Indo-Pakistan relations, leading to hostilities.
Kashmir: serious
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Significant economic, political and
commercial interests in both countries, especially India.
Also large communities from both countries in the UK which could react to hostilities
there.
Breakdown of Indo-Pak political talks; collapse of democracy in Pakistan; troop movements and preparations in either country; advent to power of BJP in India.
Little mileage in our trying to resolve the dispute which is intractable, but we are urging both sides to maintain dialogue and would step up representations if the temperature rises.
8. Cyprus: violence
arising out of
frustration at lack of
settlement and/or
provoked by rejectionists
on both sides.
Sovereign Base Areas, guarantor power.
Lack of settlement leading to frustration, with decreasing
international interest reflected in
undermanned UNFICYP: or alternatively outline agreement deliberately being jeopardised by rejectionists on one or both sides.
HMG actively assisting UNSG's efforts to reach an outline agreement acceptable to both sides.
9. Angola: a return to civil war.
Limited, but would rule out expansion of trade.
More general outbreaks of violence between MPLA and UNITA.
Embassy are active in concert with UN and others in providing channels of communication and promoting mediation efforts.
10. Hong Kong: Chinese
interference undermines
international
confidence leading to collapse of banking
Direct until 1 July 1997 when HMG would come under pressure to bail out banking system, and to cope with massive
Sharply deteriorating relationship with Chinese eg following upheaval in China and emergence of hard-line leadership.
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7
Cabinet Office has
coordinated contingency plans for dealin with immigration; monetary arrangements for coping with banking crisis; garrison for civil unrest.
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