CONFIDENTIAL
3. Jordan: a collapse of the regime, with or without Palestinian help. This could provoke a five way fight for power between Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Palestinians.
Limited. The
disappearance of the regime with closest ties to the UK would further erode our position in the Middle East.
King Hussein's health
There is little we can do to prevent internal change in Jordan.
4. Argentina: return to a hostile relationship with the UK.
They could make life more difficult and expensive for us eg threatening the Falklands fisheries, cutting our links to mainland, preventing mining of hydrocarbon deposits.
Internal political upheaval; unfriendly gestures; upgrading of offensive military capability; abandonment of sovereignty umbrella.
Managing the relationship so that we attain our own objectives while persuading Argentina that it remains in her interest to keep a cooperative relationship with
us.
5. Belize/Guatemala:
negotiations come unstuck.
6. Turkey: internal upheaval. Crisis over Iraqi Kurds in the cross-border operation
We shall have to maintain our garrison.
Substantial: apart from Operation Provide Comfort we would be in an awkward position, in NATO, Council of Europe etc.
Constitutional court rules against Serrano.
Growth of terrorism/internal
military activity.
Offer of £22.5m bilateral aid package for road projects on table pending agreement. TWO sides encouraged to present joint proposal, expected shortly.
We are working hard on an improved relationship between the Community and Turkey.
CONFIDENTIAL
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