CRISIS SCENARIO
CONFIDENTIAL
BRITISH INTERESTS
20.11.92
ACTION IN HAND FOR CONSIDERATION
1. Russia: Yeltsin poised between autocracy and overthrow; declares state of emergency; breakdown of authority and civil chaos
2. Russia: conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The problems of the Russian minority, the Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet etc make it a possibility fo the future.
3.
Russia: Baltics:
suspension of troop withdrawals adds to tension between local authorities and Russian troops. Russians
(1) This would make the cooperative security relationship
(CFE, START etc) impossible to operate.
(2) Disruption of energy markets in Eastern Europe (oil and gas) and and Western Europe (gas).
(3) Likely proliferation of nuclear scientists, nuclear
materials and conventional weapons (eg organised crime working with disaffected military).
(4) Civil nuclear catastrophes might occur without any authorities capable of dealing with the
consequences.
(5) Refugees into W. Europe
UK interests only indirect. A conflict would bring to an end the prospects of reform in both Russia and Ukraine; it could raise the spectre of nuclear conflict; it could result in westward migration and large costs for all, including the UK. Again it would create great anxieties in Eastern Europe.
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Interests not directly affected but there would be strong popular sympathy for the Baltic States. likely result would be a strengthening of reactionary and
G7 action programme on
civil nuclear catastrophe being implemented by G24.
We have urged both sides to settle their differences. Three-year interim agreement set up between Russia and Ukraine on BSF. Arbitration mechanisms through the CSCE or the ICJ could be useful.
We have discussed this with close allies. Western contact group is in operation to promote agreement between the Russians and the Baltic states.
CONFIDENTIAL
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