CONFIDENTIAL
037262
MDHIAN 2677
CHINESE INTERVENTION
16. CHINA'S INVOLVEMENT IN HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC POLITICS IS INCREASING. PRONOUNCEMENTS BY ITS SPOKESMEN ON THE COMPOSITION OF EXCO AND THE 1995 ELECTORAL ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND ARE GENERALLY REGARDED AS UNHELPFUL. HOWEVER, THE PUBLIC RESPONDED POSITIVELY TO THE FORMAL ESTABLISHMENT THIS MONTH OF A PRO-PRC POLITICAL PARTY, THE DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE FOR THE BETTERMENT OF HONG KONG (DAB). ITS ORGANISERS INCLUDE INDIVIDUALS WITH CREDIBLE RECORDS OF PAST INVOLVEMENT IN THE TERRITORY'S PUBLIC LIFE (E.G., LEGCO MEMBER TAM YIU-CHUNG).
17.
THE COMMUNITY IS GRADUALLY LEARNING TO LIVE WITH PRESSURES FORM PEKING. THE HIGH-LEVEL TALKS ON AIRPORT FINANCING LED BY THE PRIME MINISTER'S EMISSARY, SIR JOHN COLES, CREATED NO UNREASONABLE EXPECTATIONS. AND THEIR FAILURE TO PRODUCE A SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME CAUSED NO SENSE OF DOOM.
18.
THE PUBLIC'S CALM RESPONSE TO THE LACK OF PROGRESS IN THESE NEGOTIATIONS SUGGESTS THE EVOLUTION OF A MORE BALANCED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COMMUNITY AND THE FUTURE SOVEREIGN POWER. IN PART, OF COURSE, THE MORE MATTER-OF-FACT ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE AIRPORT AND ITS PROBLEMS REFLECTS AN AWARENESS THAT THE CPG IS ULTIMATELY COMMITTED TO ITS CONSTRUCTION, DESPITE ITS ATTEMPTS TO SEEK POLITICAL CONCESSIONS AS THE PRICE OF ITS CO- OPERATION. BUT ALTHOUGH PUBLIC CONFIDENCE SEEMS LESS VULNERABLE TO UNHELPFUL CHINESE COMMENTS THAN IN THE PAST, THE COMMUNITY REMAINS ANXIOUS TO AVOID OPEN QUARRELS WITH PEKING.
LAW AND ORDER
19. THE COMMUNITY'S BIGGEST SINGLE SOURCE OF ANXIETY REMAINS LAW AND ORDER (PARTICULARLY THE ROBBERY RATE). THE PAST YEAR HAS SEEN SEVERAL ROBBERIES IN BUSY SHOPPING AREAS MOUNTED BY CRIMINALS ARMED WITH AUTOMATICS AND GRENADES SMUGGLED FORM CHINA. THE PUBLIC HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY SUCH INCIDENTS, ALL THE MORE SO BECAUSE HONG KONG HAS LONG BEEN A WELL-POLICED AND LAW-ABIDING CITY BY INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS.
20.
THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF VIOLENT ROBBERIES IS SMALL (ONLY 28 DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR). BUT THESE CRIMES TEND TO BE SPECTACULAR AND WELL-PUBLICISED, AND THEY HAVE INCREASED BY 22 PERCENT COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, THE MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC AT LARGE FIND LITTLE COMFORT FORM AN ENCOURAGING DOWNTURN IN CRIME THIS YEAR. (IN THE FIRS HALF OF 1992, TOTAL CRIME FELL BY ALMOST 4 PERCENT, WHILE VIOLENT
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