TNAG-2625-FCO40-3816-Visit-by-Douglas-Hurd--Secretary-of-State-for-Foreign-and-Co-1992 — Page 21

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11. HONG KONG PEOPLE REMAIN KEENLY INTERESTED IN THE SHAPE OF THE TERRITORY'S POLITICAL FUTURE. LEGCO AND MEDIA DEBATES HAVE FOCUSED PUBLIC ATTENTION ON THE CRUCIAL CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES TO BE SETTLED IN THE COMING MONTHS. THERE IS WIDESPREAD EXPECTATION THAT EXCO'S MEMBERSHIP WILL BE EXPANDED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE MEMBERS OF THE UDHK. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 53 PERCENT OF THE RESPONDENTS TO THE MING PAO POLL, AND OPPOSED BY ONLY 16 PERCENT.

12. UNTIL VERY RECENTLY, DEBATE OVER CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM CONCENTRATED ON THE RELATIVELY NARROW QUESTION OF THE NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL DIRECTLY-ELECTED SEATS TO BE CREATED FOR THE 1995 ELECTIONS. A SUNDAY MORNING POST POLL PUBLISHED ON 21 JUNE FOUND THAT 66 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS FAVOURED MORE DEMOCRACY, EVEN AT THE RISK OF CONFRONTING CHINA. BUT THIS WAS WELL BELOW THE FIGURE OF 83 PERCENT IN MAY, SUGGESTING THAT THE COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE IS MOVING TOWARDS A MORE CAUTIOUS STANCE ON THIS ISSUE.

13. THIS SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE CONSERVATIVE ATTITUDE HELPS TO EXPLAIN WHY, IN LATE JUNE, LEGCO REJECTED BY A NARROW MAJORITY (24 TO 22) THE 1989 OMELCO CONSENSUS CALLING FOR 30 DIRECTLY- ELECTED SEATS IN 1995 (COMPARED WITH ONLY 20 AGREED WITH CHINA).

THIS VOTE WAS IN LINE WITH A GROWING PUBLIC PERCEPTION THAT CHINA WILL NOT GIVE WAY ON THE NUMBER OF DIRECTLY-ELECTED SEATS. NEVERTHELESS, THE PUBLIC STILL TAKES A MORE LIBERAL VIEW THAN LEGCO. THE SUNDAY MORNING POST POLL REPORTED 63 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS AS STILL BEING IN FAVOUR OF THE OMELCO CONSENSUS (AND

ONLY 11 PERCENT AGAINST).

14. THE PUBLIC OPINION POLLS MAY NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY, HOWEVER. PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT WHILE THE PUBLIC EXPECTS THE GOVERNMENT TO TAKE A FIRM LINE IN DEALING WITH CHINA, THE COMMUNITY QUICKLY BECOMES VERY NERVOUS AT SIGNS OF SERIOUS CONFRONTATION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE LEVEL OF SUPPORT FOR MORE DIRECTLY-ELECTED SEATS IN 1995 WOULD DECLINE SHARPLY IF THE CPG THREATENED SERIOUS RETALIATION.

15. THE PRACTICAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE 1995 ELECTIONS HAVE STARTED TO AROUSE HEATED PUBLIC DEBATE. THE CRC HAS LOBBIED HARD FOR A CHANGE IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM TO RESTRICT EACH ELECTOR TO A

SINGLE VOTE IN MULTI-SEAT CONSTITUENCIES. THIS SUGGESTION WAS WIDELY SEEN AS A CHINA-BACKED BID TO CURTAIL THE ELECTORAL

PROSPECTS OF THE UDHK AND OTHER 'LIBERAL' GROUPS. LEGCO REJECTED THE PROPOSAL BY A COMFORTABLE MAJORITY (28 TO 23) ON 15 JULY.

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