Lockerbie
CONFIDENTIAL
173760
MDHOAN 6097
There are no particular points for the Prime Minister to make to President Bush. We continue to maintain close contact with the Americans and French. At the latest sanctions review on 9 December, it was agreed that sanctions should be maintained. But if Libya continues to prevaricate, we might need to consider what further measures need to be taken.
Iraq
The P4 are currently discussing in New York the possibility of a demarche to the Iraqis about the security of humanitarian convoys in northern Iraq. There have been a number of incidents involving explosive devices placed on UN convoys of humanitarian aid as they pass through Iraqi-government controlled territory on their way to Kurdish controlled areas. The Americans have proposed a strongly worded demarche including a threat of unspecified military action. We have argued for using the phrase 'serious consequences' We are not sure what kind of military action the Americans might have in mind or what might be helpful under the circumstances. We are awaiting further news from Washington and New York about what the Americans decide to do
(the French, Russians and Turks all sought further instructions).
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We do not think that the Prime Minister will wish to raise this or any other matter concerning Iraq with President Bush. It is widely believed that the next test of Iraq will come after the Clinton administration has taken office. UKMIS New York will report a P4 demarche (or an agreement not to make one) by telegram copied to the Prime Minister's party.
HURD
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