CONFIDENTIAL
173760
MDHOAN 6097
least because it could be replaced by something much worse if extremist nationalists/patriots have their way). Obvious need for period of reassessment, so that new government can formulate new policy emphases (if any): also need to work out how far Yeltsin himself remains able to influence policy. Likely to have been various secret deals struck.
Basic UK view: doing nothing is not an option. If anything. need to make greater efforts to draw the Russians more closely into Western thinking, to help head off more nationalist/obstructive behaviour. Above all, must continue to emphasise privately and publicly to Russians that mutual confidence in post-Cold War era remains based on shared democratic assumptions/practices. Possibilities for action include:
- Signalling continuing support for practical economic reform, subject to Russians demonstrating that Western assistance will be used to support their own efforts. Dialogue with IMF/World Bank and Paris Club creditors on hyper-inflation must continue, as should technical assistance aimed at helping younger generation. Advantage in engaging Chernomyrdin himself asap in behind-the-scenes discussions of options.
- Press Russians to accept mutual benefits of existing arms-control measures and controlling conventional proliferation.
- Considering how to enhance security
confidence-building in the widest sense, eg special NATO/Russia relationship? Need to look at using NACC
more effectively?
- More military contacts, especially at middle levels where suspicions of West remain acute.
- Active cooperation on peacekeeping, especially on Yugoslavia: drawing Russians into UN operations will make it harder for them subsequently to act obstructively on the Serbs' side.
Western help in managing Russia's relations with other CIS states, especially Ukraine.
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