SECRET 高度機密
3
Illegal Immigrants
7.
There is in existence a full contingency plan,
Operation Wager, designed to deal with a mass influx of IIS from the mainland or with inability to return IIs thither. There is a system within the operation for identifying possible temporary emergency holding centres. A list of these was last updated in November 1991.
8.
In addition we have immediately available Shek Kong Detention Centre. Only Section C is still occupied by Vietnamese, This could accommodate up to 10,000-12,000 people with the addition of tents, though conditions would be very crowded and unsatisfactory at the upper limit. Shek Kong is scheduled for closure in late January 1993 for refurbishment as a runway for the Auxiliary Air Force. A continuing need the site would require postponement of that plan.
9.
The last time China refused to accept IIs (for 2 weeks in October 1989), the numbers arrested increased by 66%. At that time the PRC did not encourage the flow. Indeed, it still sought to catch those attempting to cross the border.
10.
As a ball park figure, the Secretary for Security anticipates that the number of IIs arrested over the first month of non-returnability might be around 6,000, ie. double present rates. Shek Kong could thus take maybe 1-2 months' worth. Other emergency sites could take some more but if non-returnability lasted for 3 months the situation would be very difficult to manage.
GF. 116
SECRET 高度機密
3
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