TNAG-2487-FCO40-3618-Future-relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-China-1992 — Page 65

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industrious, educated and highly productive people who have

flourished under British protection, being either refugees or

children of refugees from Communist China, had a tacit social

contract with the British in that they would not challenge the

colonial rule and that the colonial rulers would keep them free

from Communist Chinese control. But by the terms of the

negotiations the people of Hong Kong will be handed over to the

sovereign rule of Communist China in 1997 without having had an

opportunity to take part directly in the negotiations. This last

major exercise of de-colonisation cannot be regarded as the most

glorious chapter in the annals of the end of empire, but in

seeking to obtain the best possible arrangement for the future

of the people of Hong Kong in the face of overwhelming Chinese

power, it need not be regarded as the most dishonourable.

The problem is that Britain has little

little to gain if its

retreat from Hong Kong should be effected smoothly and to the

benefit of the people there, but it stands a great deal to lose

if matters should turn out badly. The fear is that a collapse of

confidence could be rapidly followed by a spiralling down of the

economy, a breakdown of social order, Chinese intervention and

a flight of Hong Kong people what the previous governor, now

Lord Wilson, called the "Armageddon Scenario". A public disaster

of that magnitude would inevitably affect the standing of the

government at home in possibly an election year and Britain's

prestige in the eyes of its allies could be greatly damaged.

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The negotiations themselves could have been expected to hold