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industrious, educated and highly productive people who have
flourished under British protection, being either refugees or
children of refugees from Communist China, had a tacit social
contract with the British in that they would not challenge the
colonial rule and that the colonial rulers would keep them free
from Communist Chinese control. But by the terms of the
negotiations the people of Hong Kong will be handed over to the
sovereign rule of Communist China in 1997 without having had an
opportunity to take part directly in the negotiations. This last
major exercise of de-colonisation cannot be regarded as the most
glorious chapter in the annals of the end of empire, but in
seeking to obtain the best possible arrangement for the future
of the people of Hong Kong in the face of overwhelming Chinese
power, it need not be regarded as the most dishonourable.
The problem is that Britain has little
little to gain if its
retreat from Hong Kong should be effected smoothly and to the
benefit of the people there, but it stands a great deal to lose
if matters should turn out badly. The fear is that a collapse of
confidence could be rapidly followed by a spiralling down of the
economy, a breakdown of social order, Chinese intervention and
a flight of Hong Kong people what the previous governor, now
Lord Wilson, called the "Armageddon Scenario". A public disaster
of that magnitude would inevitably affect the standing of the
government at home in possibly an election year and Britain's
prestige in the eyes of its allies could be greatly damaged.
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The negotiations themselves could have been expected to hold