TNAG-2466-FCO40-3590-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1992 — Page 89

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HONG KONG ECONOMY PROFILE

Economic Indicators

HONG K ONG

ECONOMY PAOFILE

1991

5.76 million*

81.2 billion*

Population

Gross Domestic Product (US$)

Real GDP Growth Rate

:

GDP Per Capita

(US$):

3.9%* 14,100*

Inflation

12%

Unemployment

2.1%

HANZ 090/1

низ

1992

5.83 million # 93.3 billion #

5%#

16,000#

9.5%#

N

No. 119 (2.4.92)

1.9% (Nov 91-Jan 92)

Jan-Feb 1992

15.39 bn. (+15%)

1991

Total Exports

(US$):

98.19 bn. (+20%)

Domestic Exports

(US$):

Re-exports

(US$):

68.57 bn.

29.62 bn. (+ 2%) (+29%)

4.06 bn. (~ 68%)

11.33 bn. (+25%)

Imports

Total Trade

Trade Balance

(US$):

(US$): (US$): 198.06 bn. (+20%)

-1.68 bn.

99.87 bn. (+21%)

15.91 bn. (+17%)

31.30 bn. (+16%) -0.52 bn.

# Official forecasts

Revised estimates

Recent Trade Developments

<<

-

-

After rising by 2% in 1991, Hong Kong's domestic exports decreased by 6% in Jan-Feb 1992. Mixed performance was recorded in 1991. Domestic exports to China (+15%) continued to grow, W. Europe (+2%) and Japan (-3%) showed signs of slowing, and the U.S. market (-5%) is forecast to revive gradually this year. Re-exports increased by 25% in January-February 1992 after a 29% growth in 1991. This was supported mainly by Hong Kong's cross-border manufacturing in Guangdong. 25,000 enterprises and 3 million workers in Guangdong are producing for Hong Kong companies, of which 19,000 enterprises and 2 mn. workers are in the processing business. Over 80% of Hong Kong's re-exports is either originated from or destined for China. Since 1990, there has been pressure in the U.S. for the withdrawal of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status for China, which is important to Hong Kong's manufacturing activity in China and its trade outlook. The House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly in November 1991 in support of a bill to attach conditions to granting MFN status to China after June 1992. On 26 February 1992, the Senate passed the bill by 59 to 39 votes, but fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to override a presidential veto. President Bush vetoed the bill on 3 March. On Mar 11, the House of Representatives voted by 357-61 to override the presidential veto. However, the Senate vote (60-38) on March 19 still fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to override Bush's veto. China is thus likely to keep the MFN status until June 1993. The U.S. administration ordered a full-scale investigation into China's import restrictions in mid-October 1991 under U.S. law Section 301. Subject to China's response, it may impose retaliatory measures in October 1992. This may affect Hong Kong re-exports.

The E.E.C. made a number of allegations against Hong Kong on dumping in the last two years. Many of them were dropped later. Today, anti-dumping duty only applies to Hong Kong video tapes (up to 21.9%) and small screen colour T.V. sets (2.1-4.8%) in the E.E.C.

The U.S. meanwhile has imposed an anti-dumping duty of 3.7% on Hong Kong's photo albums and filler pages and 5.86% on Hong Kong's acrylic sweaters.

- In Jun 1991 Mexico initiated an anti-dumping investigation into porcelain kitchenware from Hong Kong, and

in Oct it increased the anti-dumping duty on Hong Kong's denim products from US$57¢/kg to US$1/kg. Import liberalizations prevailing in Japan, Taiwan and ASEAN countries, as well as increased access of China's consumer market, have opened up new dimensions of trade. Economic reforms in East Europe have also unfolded new, albeit gradual, opportunities. Some Latin American countries (e.g. Mexico and Brazil) have also been reducing import restrictions.

Economic Background

GDP rose by 3.9% in real terms in 1991, compared with 3% in 1990. The pick-up in the tempo of economic activity reflected a number of factors, most notably the positive impact of the Memorandum of Understanding with China on the Airport Core Programme, and improved export performance. Official forecast for 1992 GDP growth is 5%.

While every effort has been taken to ensure accuracy, the HKTDC is not to be held liable for any error that may remain. Due acknowledgement to

HKTDC Research Department should be made in quoting the contents. Reproduction in whole without HKTDC's permission is prohibited.

説

Research Department, Hong Kong Trade Development Council

38th Floor, Office Tower, Convention Plaza, 1 Harbour Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong.

Tel: 5844333 Fax: 8240249 Cable: CONOTRAD HONG KONG Telex: 73595 CONHK HX