TNAG-2454-FCO40-3572-Hong-Kong-opinion-polls-1992 — Page 38

CODE 18-77

Mr Ricketts

CONFIDENTIAL

Reference

AWBOIT/S

3

DEMOCRACY AND HONG KONG OPINION

1. Mr Goodlad's recent comments on the possibility of amending the Basic Law did not get a good reaction from the ExCo old guard, Mr Allen Lee, the traditional business community or the mainstream Chinese press. No doubt senior HKG officials will seize on such reactions to argue that we must cleave to the policy of co-operation on China's terms: "there is no alternative".

2. I would draw a different conclusion. If indeed Hong Kong opinion is now moving towards a more "realistic" attitude to China and away from any excessive aspirations of democracy etc, the best way to encourage that move might be for HMG to seem more sympathetic towards Martin Lee and more willing to confront China: latent anti-British sentiment could combine with longings for a quiet life. We might then hope to see the UDHK split up and Martin Lee's supporters trounced at the 1995 polls, with the election of a LegCo dominated by the CRC and happy to collaborate with whatever Chinese regime is then in power.

HMG could then revert to a policy of appeasement, justifying this in Parliament by reference to the wishes of the people of Hong Kong, as manifested in the LegCo elections.

3. All the more reason then for our showing some leadership over the next three years and doing what we believe to be right, even if ExCo and "public opinion" are timorous and fickle.

N J Cox

Hong Kong Department

WH 302 270 2650

2 June 1992

cc: Mr Bunten

Miss Saunders o/r

MVSAGG

SLM

CONFIDENTIAL