CONFIDENTIAL
045762 MDHIAN 7573
4. IT IS HARD TO PREDICT WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER A VOTE IN LEGCO. IF MY PROPOSALS ARE PASSED IN THEIR PRESENT FORM THE CHINESE WILL REMAIN COMMITTED TO SUBVERT THEM, AND OPPOSITION ON THE AIRPORT AND IN THE JLG IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IF THEY ARE PASSED IN AMENDED FORM, THE REACTION MAY BE MORE MUTED.
5.
I AGREE THAT THE CHINESE WILL INSIST ON THE 'THREE COMPLIANCES' AS CONDITIONS FOR DISCUSSIONS. I SUSPECT THEY WOULD ALSO SAY THAT ANY ARRANGEMENTS WHICH WE GO AHEAD WITH UNILATERALLY (EVEN IF THESE ARE MODIFICATIONS OF MY PRESENT PROPOSALS) COULD NOT SURVIVE 1997: ONLY ARRANGEMENTS AGREED WITH THEM COULD. I WOULD NOT EXPECT THEM AT ANY/ANY STAGE TO PUT FORWARD PROPOSALS OF THEIR OWN.
WOR
6.
THE MAIN CARD THAT WE HOLD IN OUR HAND IS THE ACCEPTABILITY OF MY PROPOSALS TO HONG KONG PEOPLE AS A WHOLE SO LONG AS THIS
I WILL CERTAINLY BE LOBBYING THE NEW US ADMINISTRATION ON MFN, BUT THERE IS NO LIKELIHOOD THAT THAT WILL REDUCE THE LEVEL OF CHINESE INVECTIVE. NOR WOULD IT BE ACCEPTABLE IN HONG KONG FOR ME NOT TO LOBBY. THE CANADIANS AND AUSTRALIANS HAVE HELPFULLY COME OUT IN SUPPORT OF MY PROPOSALS. THIS IS WORTH ENCOURAGING, PARTICULARLY IN PRIVATE, BUT AS YOU SAY, IT IS UNLIKELY IN ITSELF TO MAKE THE CHINESE BACK DOWN.
7. A CONDITIONAL OFFER OF A LI PENG VISIT TO LONDON MIGHT CONTINUE TO BE BORNE IN MIND, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SEE HOW IT MIGHT BE PLAYED. IF I DECIDED TO MODIFY MY PROPOSALS AS A RESULT OF ACCEPTABLE INITIATIVES FORM HONG KONG PEOPLE, AND IF IN THIS WAY SOME OF THE CHINESE CONCERNS (E.G. ON COMPOSITION OF THE ELECTION COMMITTEE) WERE ADDRESSED, A VISIT BY LI PENG MIGHT BE A WAY OF CALMING THE CHINESE DOWN ON REMAINING POINTS. BUT I WOULD NOT WANT SUCH AN OFFER TO BE MADE UNLESS IT WAS CLEAR THAT WE WOULD BE RESOLVING OUR PRESENT DISPUTE ON TERMS ACCEPTABLE TO US AND TO HONG KONG.
8.
THE PURPOSE OF AN EARLY MEETING BETWEEN THE SECRETARY OF STATE AND QIAN QICHEN WOULD BE TO ENABLE US TO PUT PROPOSALS TO LEGCO WITHOUT BEING ACCUSED OF NOT ATTEMPTING TO USE EVERY MEANS TO REACH AGREEMENT. WHEN WE PUT DRAFT LEGISLATION TO LEGCO IN FEBRUARY, I THINK IT IS CLEAR THAT THE CHINESE WILL REGARD THE CONSULTATION PERIOD AS CONCLUDED. THEORETICALLY WE COULD ARGUE THAT CHINESE IDEAS WOULD BE WELCOME EVEN WHILE THE LEGISLATION IS GOING THROUGH THE COUNCIL, BUT I THINK THEY WOULD REJECT THAT.
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