CONFIDENTIAL
0457 2
MDHIAN
BE AN ACHIEVEMENT (THIS WAS THE FORM OF ELECTION COMMITTEE WHICH LU PING WAS DISCUSSING IN THE SUMMER WITH POLITICAL GROUPS FROM HONG KONG).
C) IN GENERAL, IF WE WERE ABLE TO ENGAGE THEM IN DISCUSSION OF THE DETAILS IT WOULD BEGIN TO EXPOSE THE WEAKNESS OF THEIR CASE, WHICH IS NO DOUBT WHY THEY ARE AVOIDING SUCH DISCUSSION.
D) IT IS CLEAR FROM CHINESE COMMENTS THAT, AS WELL AS THE ELECTION COMMITTEE, IT IS THE FUNCTIONAL CONSTITUENCIES AND THE GOVERNMENT LEGCO COMMITTEE WHICH THEY ARE PARTICULARLY ANGRY ABOUT. THE LAST OF THESE IS NOW SOMEWHAT ACADEMIC AS LEGCO HAVE NOT TAKEN IT UP, AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
E) IT IS NOT FOR US TO PUT FORWARD ALTERNATIVES ON THESE ISSUES IN ANY DISCUSSION WITH THE CHINESE. ALTERNATIVES WOULD EITHER BE SWALLOWED IF THEY MET CHINESE POINTS (FAIRLY UNLIKELY), OR CRITICISED LIKE THE ORIGINAL PROPOSALS. THE CHINESE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY FOR TIME WHILE THEY WORK ON HONG KONG OPINION. I WOULD BE WIDELY SEEN IN HONG KONG TO BE ON THE RUN. THAT IN TURN WOULD LEAD TO STEPPED UP CHINESE ATTACKS AND TO LOUDER CRITICISM FROM THOSE IN HONG KONG WHO DO NOT SUPPORT MY PROPOSALS.
F) BUT IT COULD WELL BE HELPFUL IF, AS THEY ARE NOW STARTING TO, GROUPS IN HONG KONG WERE TO MAKE ALTERNATIVE PROPOSALS. THOSE WHICH MEET MY CRITERIA OF BEING OPEN, FAIR AND ACCEPTABLE TO HONG KONG PEOPLE WILL BE GIVEN SERIOUS CONSIDERATION.
3.
IN THE SHORT TERM, WHAT THE CHINESE ARE LIKELY TO DO IS:
(A) ATTACK MY CONSTITUTIONAL PROPOSALS VIGOROUSLY, WITHHOLD AGREEMENT ON THE AIRPORT AND BLOCK PROGRESS IN THE JLG:
(B) TRY TO INTIMIDATE LEGCO MEMBERS WITH THE AIM OF ENSURING THAT MY PROPOSALS ARE VOTED DOWN:
(C) PRODUCE GENERAL THREATS THAT WORRY PEOPLE IN HONG KONG. IT IS HARD TO SEE PRECISELY WHAT THEIR THREATS ABOUT ADMINISTRATIVE AND JUDICIAL ARRANGEMENTS MEAN. THERE IS, FOR EXAMPLE, NO SIGN THAT THE CHINESE WILL REVERSE THEIR POLICY OF ENCOURAGING AS MANY CIVIL SERVANTS AS POSSIBLE TO STAY ON AFTER
1997.
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