TNAG-2452-FCO40-3569-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 162

substance, they concentrated their fire on the proposals to broaden

the franchise for the functional constituencies, and to form the

Election Committee of people who had themselves been elected. They have refused to put forward any alternatives, and have mounted a vitriolic propaganda campaign in Hong Kong.

4.

that Deng Xiaoping has laid down in extremely tough

terms that the Chinese should stick to a hard line and force the

Governor to backtrack; and if he does not, that China should make preparations to set up new institutions in 1997.

5. In carrying out this instruction, Chinese officials are concentrating in the short term on undermining support in Hong Kong

for the Governor's proposals, in particular through:

We

a sustained campaign of intimidation against members of the Legislative Council (LegCo), with the aim of denying the Governor a majority when he puts his proposals to LegCo early next year. have already seen evidence of crude threats involving members' business interests in China, and their hopes for preferment in Hong

Kong post-1997;

- a similar effort to frighten members of the business community.

We have already heard the first jitters from that quarter;

- a continuing refusal to agree financing arrangements for the new

airport;

- a freeze on progress in the Joint Liaison Group.

6.

In the longer term, Chinese tactics will depend on whether LegCo are prepared to enact the Governor's proposals. If they do so largely unamended, I would expect the Chinese to sustain and possibly intensify their campaign, with the aim of disrupting the LegCo elections in 1995. They might well threaten that anyone who became a member of the 1995 LegCo would be excluded from participation in public life after 1997.

cab.off.SA

SLM

Other actions they could

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