TNAG-2451-FCO40-3568-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 83

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173750 MDADAN 5836

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İNFO IMMEDIATE PEKING, UKREP JLG HONG KONG

CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT: THE WAY FORWARD.

1. FOLLOWING MY VISIT TO PEKING, PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR MY CONSTITUTIONAL PROPOSALS HAS REMAINED ROBUST. POLLS TAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND SHOW A 60 70 PERCENT SUPPORT FOR THEM, AND ABOUT 60 PERCENT SUPPORT FOR GOING AHEAD EVEN IF THE CHINESE CONTINUE TO OPPOSE THEM.

2. THERE ARE TWO SOURCES OF PRESSURE IN LEGCO FOR A REFERENDUM: FROM SOME IN THE CRC WHO SEEK TO EVADE THEIR RESPONSIBILITY TO TAKE A DECISION, AND FROM THE UDHK WHO HOPE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIZEABLE POPULAR VOTE FOR GOING IT ALONE AND WHO WANT TO SET PRECEDENTS FOR THE FUTURE.

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BUT I TOTALLY SHARE MINISTERS' RESERVATIONS ABOUT A REFERENDUM. IT WOULD PUT ME IN AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT POSITION IF ONE WERE TO BE HELD AND MY PROPOSALS EITHER LOST OR ONLY WON VERY NARROWLY. IN ANSWER TO QUESTIONS IN LEGCO ON 24 OCTOBER, I SAID THAT A REFERENDUM WAS NOT ON MY AGENDA AND WOULD NOT IN ANY CASE ABSOLVE MEMBERS FROM DECIDING ON THE LEGISLATION FOR THE 1995 ELECTIONS.

THERE WILL BE A LEGCO DEBATE ON A REFERENDUM ON 4 NOVEMBER. THE FINAL WORDING HAS STILL TO BE DECIDED. AT PRESENT, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE CRC, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIBERALS AND INDEPENDENTS, WILL HAVE RESERVATIONS. A SMALL NUMBER OF PRO-CHINA MEMBERS WILL DEFINITELY VOTE AGAINST. WE WILL GIVE YOU A MORE DETAILED ASSESSMENT NEARER THE TIME. MY PRESENT INCLINATION IS THAT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE THE POINTS I MADE ON 24 OCTOBER AND TO POINT OUT HOW DIVISIVE A REFERENDUM WOULD BE IN THE COMMUNITY. OFFICIAL MEMBERS WILL PROBABLY ABSTAIN. WHATEVER THE OUTCOME WE WOULD NOT BE LEGALLY BOUND BY SUCH A MOTION.

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FURTHER DISCUSSIONS

COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE JLG. IF THIS IS TO HAPPEN, THE DECEMBER PLENARY IS CLEARLY TOO LATE. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL NEED TO

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Redacted under FOI exemption 27(1)