TNAG-2451-FCO40-3568-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 66

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(b)

CONFIDENTIAL

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(W)

We should resist any call for a referendum.

Legislation might be introduced in mid-February.

There is probably no way to short-circuit lengthy scrutiny of our proposals in a LegCo Bills Committee.

We will need to work hard on legislators until the legislation is voted on. At present our estimate is that we have (?) 24 firm votes on our side, excluding

the official members.

China Dimension

The Chinese will seek to terrorise LegCo members. They will also work on the business community and

selected civil servants.

They will keep the general tone of our relations bad at least until legislation is passed in order to induce as much worry in Hong Kong as possible.

They are unlikely themselves to come up with any counter proposals. They will demand that we revise our proposals, in particular on the Election Committee and Functional Constituencies.

We should show willing to hold discussions in the JLG while not giving the impression that we will hurriedly modify our proposals.

The Governor should see Zhou Nan from time to time.

CONFIDENTIAL