TNAG-2404-FCO40-3491-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1992 — Page 179

FCO40 Hong Kong Department Records 聯邦事務部香港部檔案 All

SECRET UK EYES A LOCSEN

Any sort

13. In response to a question from the Chairman on the succession to the present PRC Leadership, CBF HK re-iterated that the key to Hong Kong was

determined by what happens in China. China was led by a geriatric

regime. Much would depend on when they died and in what order. It was

not known whether there could be a successful transition to a younger

generation of rulers or whether the power struggle would spill out into

the open.

Fear of chaos and instability was the main danger. of instability would create a bowwave of feeling that would quickly encroach into Hong Kong. The impact of the departure of the old men would be considerable, and they could "pop off" any day. The Premier's recent visit to Shenzen might indicate a shift of power in favour of the

ecomomic liberals. Mr Stone agreed with CBF HK's analysis and commented

that little of what Deng had said in Shenzen had been published in China.

It was too late for China to pull back on the progress made and attempt to re-centralise the ecomony. The worst aspect was the possibility of

instability in China. Stability in China was a higher priority for Hong

Kong than a more liberal regime.

14.

Discussion then returned to budgetary matters, and CBF HK pointed out that the Finance Committee of HKG had to approve all spending. They had already flexed their muscles, and the passage of the next DCA bill might well be difficult. The increased costs of "Stronger for Longer"

were likely to become an issue with both the Administration and the

LEGCO, however the prinicple had been accepted by HKG.

ITEM 2 MINUTES OF THE LAST MEETING

15. The Minutes of the previous meeting were passed as a

true record.

LOCSEN

UK EYES A SECRET

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