TNAG-2346-FCO40-3415-Political-relations-between-Hong-Kong--Japan-and-China-1991 — Page 54

い

SIR JOHN COLES' BILATERAL WITH MR TANINO, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF ASIAN

AFFAIRS IN THE JAPANESE MFA, 25 OCTOBER

BULL POINTS

China

-

Our analyses of developments in China broadly similar. We have enjoyed our frequent exchanges of views with you (Head of China Division's visit to UK in June). Useful exchange of messages between Prime Minister after respective visits (attached).

Principal focus of Mr Major's visit was Hong Kong but also

discussed bilateral and international issues and human rights.

t

Internal situation still in stalemate: economic reform

proceeds, while political change is not on the agenda. Continued jockeying for position by reformists and hardliners. Only the deaths of the gerontocrats will alter this.

Worried

Chinese concerned about developments in Soviet Union. about implications for nuclear weapons of independence of republics. Fear ethnic unrest spilling over into China. Developments in Soviet Union have reinforced belief in own firm line. But they have not

let these anxieties affect their pragmatic public response to the changes (eg rapid establishment of diplomatic relations with the

Baltics).

Vice Premier Zou visiting UK at present. Most senior visitor since Party General Secretary Hu Yaobang in 1986. Principal

interests economic and commercial.

Lord Caithness to visit China from 25 November to 4 December.

1

Plans for further high level Japan/China exchanges?

ML1AHX