TNAG-2274-FCO40-3273-Seminars-attended-by-ministers--officials-and-businessmen-co-1991 — Page 30

6. Professor O'Neill argued that the Pacific Rim was not a homogenous region. ASEAN and the South Pacific were relatively stable. In contrast there were a number of unresolved conflicts in North East Asia. Yet this was the area of principal interest to businessmen. Mr Buruma (The Spectator) thought that there was a risk of a breakdown in the "de facto" co-operation between Japan and the US which had assured respectively the prosperity and security of the region. The result could be the development of a

"Yen Bloc". Lord Caithness asked whether the Pacific Rim was the right area to be focussing on commercially. Mr Buruma wondered whether Latin America and Africa (assuming the resurgence of South Africa) would not provide equally important opportunities.

7.

There was some inconclusive discussion of the relation between politics and commmerce. Lord Caithness wondered whether stressing good government criteria in our bilateral relations might not have adverse commercial consequences. Our insistence on reference to Burma had gone down badly at the recent EC/ASEAN meeting. Mr Andrews thought that there was little direct cost in raising such issues. Most participants seemed to agree. Mr Buruma pointed to the risk of appearing to be too close to unattractive regimes with short lifespans.

8.

Mr Godwin (who is a member of the Anglo-Taiwan Trade Committee) thought that the level of British official presence in Taiwan was about right, although others, eg. France, were doing more. The ATTC Office in Taipei was well staffed.

Mr Morrell said that British finance houses were well prepared in Taiwan (and elsewhere) to profit from an eventual liberalisation of the markets. North Korea, although interesting, was probably not worth bothering about commercially in the near future.

Ich Tim ilch

Peter Tibber

PS/Lord Caithness

14 June 1991

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Ms Doherty,

Cd. you pls ask HKGO & TDC & then draft brief tel.

Miss Sanders

Pl off a tel to HIC & ask HKGO who may be around.

M

Mr Jox,

HKD