TNAG-2244-FCO40-3225-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-impact-on-Hong-Kong-1991 — Page 83

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Maz 090/4

Mr

112011 MDTTAN 2135

Ricket

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FM WASHINGTON

TO TELELETTER FCO

TELELETTER NFR

OF 112334Z SEPTEMBER 91

AND TO TELELETTER HONG KONG, PEKING

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ушкаб How WESKAD M.

Mr

Fox

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FURNESS

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FROM:

FOLLOWING FOR:

COPIED TO:

SD PATTISON, WASHINGTON

M STONE ESQ, HONG KONG DEPT, FCO CHANCERIES: HONG KONG

PEKING

CHINA MFN

1. I RECENTLY DISCUSSED THE PROSPECTS FOR THE MFN DEBATE THIS AUTUMN WITH CONGRESSIONAL CONTACTS. THEY DID NOT FORESEE ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGE IN THE ADMINISTRATION'S SUPPORT ON THE HILL. THOSE CONGRESSMEN WHO HAD SUPPORTED THE ADMINISTRATION IN JULY HAD DONE SO FOR THREE MAIN REASONS:

(I) BECAUSE THEY THOUGHT MEN WAS THE WRONG TOOL TO PUT PRESSURE ON THE CHINESE OVER ISSUES SUCH AS HUMAN RIGHTS AND NON-PROLIFERATION,

(II) BECAUSE OF CONCERN AMONG SENATORS FROM AGRICULTURAL STATES THAT IF MFN WERE WITHDRAWN THE CHINESE WOULD RETALIATE BY CUTTING IMPORTS OF AMERICAN GRAIN, AND

(III)

BECAUSE REPUBLICANS WERE NOT PREPARED TO ALLOW THE DEMOCRATS

TO MAKE POLITICAL CAPITAL OUT OF THIS ISSUE.

THE GENERAL VIEW WAS THAT THESE ARGUMENTS WOULD STILL HOLD GOOD.

2.

THERE WAS, HOWEVER, SOME CONCERN THAT RECENT EVENTS IN THE SOVIET UNION MIGHT INDIRECTLY AFFECT THE DEBATE, BECAUSE THE CHINESE WOULD PROBABLY ADOPT EVEN TOUGHER INTERNAL POLICIES TO TRY TO AVOID THE SAME FATE. THIS COULD GIVE MORE AMMUNITION TO CHINA'S

CRITICS ON THE HILL.

SIGNED S D PATTISON

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