TNAG-2242-FCO40-3223-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-impact-on-Hong-Kong-1991 — Page 99

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Estimation of relative importance

to the Hong Kong economy of re-exports of China origin to the United States

Annex IV

Step 1:

Total trade flows in connection with Hong Kong's re-exports of China origin to the United States in 1990 (as derived from Annex III): HK$207,777

million

Step 2:

Express the value of the total trade flows derived in Step 1 as a proportion of Hong Kong's overall trade (total exports plus total imports)

Step 3 :

Step 4:

in taan

HK$207,777 million HK$1,282,405 million

= 16.2%

Number of persons employed in the import/export trade sub-sector in 1990 Q3 : 336 183

Total value-added contribution to GDP by the import/export trade sub-sector in 1988 : HK$58,022 million (latest figure available).

Step 5 : Since the value

than

higher contribution to

of total trade in 1990 was 29% in 1988, the value-added GDP by the import/export trade sub-sector in 1988 has to be blown up by 29% to arrive at

an estimated value of HKS74,848 million for 1990.

Step 6: Applying the proportion obtained in Step 2 to the results in Step 3 and Step 5, it is estimated that 54 461 jobs and HK$12,125 million of value-added contribution to GDP in 1990 were generated by this stream of re-export trade involving China as origin and the United States

as destination