RESTRICTED
Estimation of relative importance
to the Hong Kong economy of re-exports of China origin to the United States
Annex IV
Step 1:
Total trade flows in connection with Hong Kong's re-exports of China origin to the United States in 1990 (as derived from Annex III): HK$207,777
million
Step 2:
Express the value of the total trade flows derived in Step 1 as a proportion of Hong Kong's overall trade (total exports plus total imports)
Step 3 :
Step 4:
in taan
HK$207,777 million HK$1,282,405 million
= 16.2%
Number of persons employed in the import/export trade sub-sector in 1990 Q3 : 336 183
Total value-added contribution to GDP by the import/export trade sub-sector in 1988 : HK$58,022 million (latest figure available).
Step 5 : Since the value
than
higher contribution to
of total trade in 1990 was 29% in 1988, the value-added GDP by the import/export trade sub-sector in 1988 has to be blown up by 29% to arrive at
an estimated value of HKS74,848 million for 1990.
Step 6: Applying the proportion obtained in Step 2 to the results in Step 3 and Step 5, it is estimated that 54 461 jobs and HK$12,125 million of value-added contribution to GDP in 1990 were generated by this stream of re-export trade involving China as origin and the United States
as destination