TNAG-2242-FCO40-3223-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-impact-on-Hong-Kong-1991 — Page 103

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6.

every

It is not possible to carry out the assessment on

commoditv. given that there are numerous commodities involved and some of them do not have unit of quanti.v (and

thus no unit value of imports can be derived). Thus only commodities which have significant shares in the

those

US-China

trade

and which have unit. of mani fv are

Where more than one commodity is selected for A

group, the impact on the commodity group as a

hagis of the averane impact

commodities.

The estimated

China's exports to the US.

of impact assessed for each

applied to the trade values of

selected.

commodity

whole is assessed on the observed from the selected

percentages of reduction in

depending on the intensitv

commodity group, are then

Hona Kong's re-exports to the US of China origin. These

are then aggregated to derive the overall impact. Table 1

shows the estimated impacts by commodities and Table 2

shows the resultsa of Aggregation

Findings

7.

as

Based on the above approach. it is estimated that

а result of the non-renewal of MEN &tatus for China hu the US, Hong Kong's re-exports to the US of China origin

are likely to be reduced by 33%

re-exports

-

-

44%.

The total

of Hong Kong may thus be reduced by 7% 9%. In

terms of trade value,

reduced by HK$27 billion

Hong Kong's re-exports

will

be

-

HKS36 billion.

(20