Assumptions
SECRET
UK EYES A LOCSEN
THE LAST 6 MONTHS
ANNEX E TO
D Cts Staff(R)76/259/22/2
1.
Scenario. As stated in "The Threat", anything from a peaceful,
uneventful transfer of sovereignty to a transfer which takes place
amidst scenes of violence is possible. It is relevant, however, that
if we are faced with a worst case scenario, the Garrison's role would
depend on high level political decisions. Such decisions might well
follow consultation between HMG and the government of the PRC. Planning some 5 years in advance against this range of eventualities
is simply not possible. The first assumption therefore is that the
situation during the final 6 months is calm; a relatively uneventful
transfer of authority is expected in which case the RHKP will be able
to cope with most eventualities.
2.
Military Presence.
a. The second assumption is that there will be at least one
battalion in Hong Kong up to a point just short of the handover
on 30 June 1997, and a second battalion in the Territory until
at least end 1996/early 1997.
b. There must of course be no doubt about the commitment and
effectiveness of the residual Garrison. At the same time, it
must not be allowed to dwindle during the last 6 months to a
state that renders it ineffective by being too small for practical use. In order to meet these requirements, and assuming
that the police remain an effective force, it is considered that
the minimum level will be a force which includes a naval
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