TNAG-2237-FCO40-3216-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1991 — Page 118

SECRET

UK EYES A

9.

Deep-rooted hostility will continue to exist between many of the countries in the Arab World region and, in particular, the pretensions of Libya under Qaddaffi and his heirs, the Israeli confrontation with its Arab neighbours and competition between Iraq and Iran for authority in the Gulf could lead to renewed conflict. The broad equality of capability available to the various potential opponents suggests that such a conflict could be prolonged but the vital political, social and religious interests at stake also suggest that there may be little constraint in the use of the highly sophisticated weapon systems available. The more positive developments in

the Arab world which have led to the formation of the Arab Maghreb Union, the Arab Co-operation Council and the Gulf Co- operation Council may be able to increase stability within limited areas. Despite the unpredictability of the region such unions will probably still exist in some form or another into the 21st Century.

10. The United Kingdom's vital interests in the area will be threatened by renewals of military conflict in the Gulf area, by further Arab/Israeli hostilities and by the actions of maverick states such as Libya (eg against Cyprus, Gibraltar). The growing military effectiveness of moderate countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt may, however, serve our interests well in terms of deterring adventures by the more volatile elements in the region.

11. The use of surrogate terrorist groups by some Arab regimes will probably continue. It will remain an easy and viable way for the states that sponsor terrorism in this way to attack larger Western powers and their own dissident groups living abroad. The US will probably be the main focus for such attacks but the UK is still thought of synonymously with US interests in many Arab quarters. State sponsors will become more cunning at concealing their links with the terrorist groups that carry out the attacks.

and.2s1

D-5

UK EYES A SECRET