SECRET UK EYES A
SBAS, though there remains a continuing, but so far limited, opposition to the British bases across the local political spectrum. Looking to the future, there are three main
scenarios:
a.
If there was no agreement between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities and the current "de facto" partition of the island remained, we could expect minimum disruption to British interests.
b. If there was an agreement which did not work and inter-communal relations deteriorated, the instability created could be expected to reflect on British
interests. In the worst case our ability to secure them
could be affected.
c.
If there were to be an agreement that was seen by both communities to have worked for a reasonable period of time, we could expect the government of the Republic to exert pressure on the UK government to give up the SBAS and the Retained Sites.
But for as long as British forces remain in Cyprus, the threat of terrorist action against them will continue.
ARAB WORLD
8. There is a continuing danger of internal unrest in the Arab world but in the main the ruling factions have a strong grip on power. The armed forces of the region are generally large, are lavishly equipped with advanced conventional weapons and are increasingly acquiring a CBW capability and also medium range ballistic missiles to supplement the bombers already in service. There is some evidence that Iraq, although party to the NPT, may be seeking to acquire a nuclear weapon capability. The burgeoning drug problem in the Near East, especially in Lebanon, is likely to be accompanied by an increase in narcotics related terrorism and arms trafficking. The geographical proximity of Cyprus will mean that the island will also be affected.
and.2s1
D-4
UK EYES A SECRET
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