Cambodia/Vietnam
9. BG Yeo said that Vietnam was nother case of old men not wishing to relinquish power. The Vietnamese leaders believed that they were the inheritors of the French Empire in Indo-China and that they had a right to power. Vietnam was going through a reactionary phase and it was possible that the reformists might be hunted out at the June Party Congress. Elections in Cambodia might herald the downfall of the current Vietnamese leadership. This was why they had drawn back from the Permanent Five Framework. But in the end they would have to give way: they could not ignore economic realities.
10.
Lord Caithness commented that this wasy why it was important to keep the negotiating process, and the Permanent Five Framework, going. There were advantages in holding another meeting of the four Cambodian factions in Jakarta before the Vietnamese Party Congress, but this meeting should not be allowed to be seen as a "make or break" meeting. BG Yeo replied that the Khmers were bound to re-assert themselves in the end. No amount of Vietnamisation would turn them round. The longer term (3-5 years) prospects were therefore quite good. settlement would be reach, the overseas Chinese would return, and Japanese, Taiwanese and US investment would flow in.
11.
Lord Caithness asked whether this might open the way for Vietnamese membership of ASEAN by the turn of the Century. BG Yeo thought that some relationship might be in place by then, but that it was perhaps too early for full membership. There would be reform within the Communist system in Vietnam but the Vietnamese would not jettison Ho Chi Minh completely. After 10-15 years this might not matter greatly. The Communist framework could be interpreted in a creative way.
Vietnamese Boat People
12.
Lord Caithness said that the Boat People problem seemed to be getting worse. On 30 April, the largest single boat load (110) of VBPs since 1989 had arrived in Hong Kong. The numbers were going up every day. Initial hopes for voluntary repatriation had been hit by the judicial reviews of the case of 111 VBPs who claimed to be on their way to Japan and of the screening process in general. A general feeling had grown in the camps and in Vietnam that the CPA was breaking down. There were growing rumours that the US would eventually bail out the VBPs. The volume of volumtary returnees had dropped from 800 to 50 last month and the exodus was increasing. BG Yeo asked whether migrants were still travelling over land via China. Lord Caithness said that in October 1990, 80% had travelled by land from the south of Vietnam. Now about 40% were travelling by land. They were coming from all parts of Vietnam. The Chinese view was that the solution was to abandon the policy of first asylum. If they could not prevent smuggling of goods from Hong Kong, how could they stop Vietnamese migrants travelling over land with help from their friends? The cost to Hong Kong was enormous and something had to be done. SC4 had agreed that the CPA was still in force. The case of the 111 VBPs bound for Japan had been resolved. The legitimacy of the screening process had been confirmed. But there was still a feeling in the camps that the US would step in. Conditions in the camps were probably no worse than in Vietnam and migrants who returned to Vietnam suffered a considerable loss of face. The international community would have to focus on the problem again in the summer. BG Yeo commented that we should hold firm.
- 3-
cont'd
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