CONFIDENTIAL
002071 MDLIAN 5346
HONG KONG. IN ADDITION TO FIELDING CANDIDATES IN SEATS WHERE THEY CONSIDER THEIR CHANCES OF SUCCESS ARE GOOD, THE COMMUNISTS CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOBILISE SUPPORT FOR NEUTRAL CANDIDATES IN ORDER TO BLOCK THE CHANCES OF KUOMINTANG (KMT) OR ULTRA-LIBERAL
CANDIDATES.
PRO-TAIWAN GROUPS
12. WE BELIEVE THAT LOCAL KMT GROUPS WILL MOBILISE SUPPORT FOR THEIR OWN CANDIDATES OR FOR CANDIDATES ASSESSED AS BEING FRIENDLY. THE TRUE EXTENT OF KMT INVOLVEMENT MAY NOT BECOME APPARENT AS THEY ARE CLEARLY ADOPTING A LOW PROFILE.
TRADITIONAL GROUPS
13. THE CIVIC ASSOCIATION FIELDED A RESPECTABLE SLATE OF 30 CANDIDATES WHILE THE REFORM CLUB NAMES 3 CANDIDATES TO RUN UNDER
ITS BANNER.
INDEPENDENTS
14. IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT ALL THE POLITICAL GROUPS
TOGETHER STILL ACCOUNT FOR LESS THAN HALF OF ALL THE DB CANDIDATES. THE REMAINING ONES ARE RUNNING AS INDEPENDENTS ON PLATFORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY CONCERNED WITH
LOCAL DISTRICT ISSUES.
ELECTION FINANCING
15. ONE FEATURE WHICH SETS THIS ELECTION APART FORM ALL PREVIOUS ELECTIONS IS THE PROVISION OF FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO CANDIDATES BY SPONSORING ORGANISATIONS ON A LARGE SCALE. MOST GROUPS HAVE COMMITTED THEMSELVES TO SUPPORTING THEIR CANDIDATES FINANCIALLY, AND THE BETTER ORGANISED ONES LIKE UDHK, ADPL, HKDF, AND LDF HAVE EVEN ANNOUNCED THEIR POLICIES FOR SUCH ASSISTANCE.
COMMENTS
16. WHILST THE LINE-UP OF VARIOUS GROUPS IN THE DB ELECTION GIVES US A GOOD IDEA OF THEIR RELATIVE STRENGTH, THE ULTIMATE TEST IS STILL THE NUMBER OF SEATS EACH CAN WIN ON 3 MARCH. THE MAIN BATTLE LINE APPEARS INCREASINGLY TO BE DRAWN WITH THE LIBERALS ON ONE SIDE AND A LOOSE 'COALITION OF CONVENIENCE' CONSISTING OF BUSINESS/PROFESSIONAL, MODERATE, TRADITIONAL, NT AND PRO-CHINA GROUPS ON THE OTHER SIDE. THE OUTCOME OF THIS CONTEST WILL HAVE A GREAT BEARING ON THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPAL COUNCIL AND LEGCO
ELECTIONS.
WILSON
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