CONFIDENTIAL
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MDLIAN
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EXTENT OF THE REALIGNMENT THAT IS GOING ON BUT IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MODERATES' AND 'CONSERVATIVES', ETC IS BY NO MEANS CLEAR-CUT AND THESE LABELS MUST BE USED WITH GREAT CAUTION. A NEW GROUP HAS ARISEN TO TRY TO CLAIM THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CONSERVATIVES AND THE LIBERALS VACATED BY THE PROGRESSIVE HONG KONG SOCIETY. HEADED BY CHENG KAI-NAM (FORMER BLCC MEMBER AND CHAIRMAN OF THE PRO-CHINA FEDERATION OF EDUCATION WORKERS), THE HONG KONG CITIZENS FORUM IS THE NEWEST POLITICAL GROUP ON THE SCENE (IT WAS INAUGURATED ON 20 JANUARY). THE FORUM SUPPORTS THE POLICIES OF ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS' AND 'HONG KONG PEOPLE RULING HONG KONG', AND ADVOCATES AN INCREASE IN DIALOGUE WITH CHINA BUT WOULD RESIST ANY ATTEMPT BY CHINA TO INTERFERE IN HONG KONG'S INTERNAL AFFAIRS. IT ALSO ADVOCATES A FREE MARKET, PRIVATE OWNERSHIP, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND FAIR SOCIAL POLICIES. AS A LATE-COMER, THE FORUM IS ONLY ABLE TO SPONSOR 9 CANDIDATES WHO WILL NEVERTHELESS STAND AS INDEPENDENTS. THIS PECULIAR STATE OF AFFAIRS COULD BE A REFLECTION OF THE CANDIDATES' UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE GROUP WOULD BE RECEIVED BY VOTERS.
RURAL NT INTERESTS
10. IT WAS WIDELY REPORTED IN LATE 1990 THAT RURAL NT INTERESTS WERE COALESCING TO FORM A NEW POLITICAL GROUP UNDER THE NAME OF THE FEDERATION FOR THE STABILITY OF HONG KONG (FSHK). THE IDEA HAD EVEN BEEN FLOATED THAT THE HEUNG YEE KUK MIGHT EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH FSHK. INEXPLICABLY, HOWEVER, FSHK HAS NOT SO FAR BEEN FORMALLY REGISTERED. LACKING A FORMAL VEHICLE FOR CO-ORDINATION OF FUNDRAISING AND CAMPAIGNING, NT GROUPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HANDICAPPED IN THE DB ELECTION BUT THEIR INFLUENCE WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE IN NT DISTRICTS. COMMON INTERESTS WILL LIKELY DICTATE A COALITION WITH PRO-CHINA GROUPS AND POSSIBLY WITH LDF TO COUNTER LIBERAL FORCES PARTICULARLY THE UDHK.
PRO-CHINA GROUPS
11. THE FEDERATION OF TRADE UNIONS (FTU) HAS PLEDGED TO TAKE AN ACTIVE PART IN THIS YEAR'S ELECTIONS. THE FTU AND ITS MEMBER UNIONS ARE CONFIDENT OF FIELDING MORE THAN 12 CANDIDATES ALTHOUGH SO FAR ONLY A FEW NAMES HAVE BEEN ANNOUNCED. PUBLIC STATEMENTS MADE IN MAY LAST YEAR BY SENIOR CHINESE OFFICIALS, BOTH ON THE MAINLAND (JI PENGFEI) IN HONG KONG (ZHOU NAN), MADE IT CLEAR THAT PEKING EXPECTED ITS SUPPORTERS IN HONG KONG TO PARTICIPATE ACTIVELY IN THE 1991 ELECTIONS. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE COMMUNISTS' EFFORTS WILL BE ON BROAD FRONT INVOLVING MANY COMMUNIST-CONTROLLED AND INFLUENCED ORGANISATIONS THROUGHOUT
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